Every year, the who’s who of international climate policy meets at the world climate conference. The gap between industrialized countries and developing countries is large – unfulfilled expectations, demands for money and power struggles weigh on the mood.
Who is responsible for the damage caused by climate change? And who has to bear the costs? These questions will be at the heart of discussions at the COP 27 climate conference.
The place where, starting today, almost 200 governments are negotiating the next steps in the fight against climate change, could hardly have a more appropriate name to illustrate the areas of conflict in international climate policy: the COP 27 climate conference will take place over the next two weeks in one conference center bearing the name of a luxury car brand – at the Tonino Lamborghini International Convention Center in Sharm el-Sheikh.
Tens of thousands of diplomats, politicians, industry representatives and activists gather in existing and temporary building structures to argue about how to slow down climate change. The Egyptian hosts said on Saturday more than 40,000 participants had registered.
Annually, the conferences are a place where rich and poor, global North and South, business interests and activism collide. What is different this year, however, is that the negotiations on the rules of the 2015 Paris Agreement have largely been completed since last year. Now the focus should be on fulfilling the many promises. Denounced as a pure greenwashing event by activists like Greta Thunberg these days, the annual negotiations are a unique place for many diplomats and activists from small island states and poor developing countries to spread their concerns to the whole world. Whether it’s the US, Switzerland or Senegal, each country’s vote carries nominally the same weight. Decisions in the climate negotiations can only be made with unanimity.
Political interests diverge
Different governments and regions often have very different interests. In the coming days, the main concern for the rich industrialized countries will be to get the up-and-coming economic powers such as China or India to accelerate their emission reductions. Last year, all governments had committed to revising their climate plans. Only 24 countries, many with small carbon footprints have actually followed suit so far.
The global race for the climate-neutral future markets has begun. Major economic powerhouses have committed to net-zero emissions targets, but the pace varies. The EU and the USA want to drastically reduce their emissions by 2050. China, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, is targeting 2060. India has announced the year 2070. At the same time, Europe and the USA want to ensure that the coming years of conversion do not mean a competitive disadvantage for domestic industries. The emerging economic powers – whether China, where emissions continue to rise, India or Brazil, which has now elected a more environmentally conscious politician in Lula da Silva – should follow suit.
European negotiators said on Friday they would increase pressure on China to reduce annual emissions before 2030. Conflicts are programmed in the coming days. Government representatives will not only meet at the COP 27, but also at the G-20 summit, which will take place in mid-November in Bali at the same time as the crucial phase of the climate negotiations.
The struggle to reduce emissions is not just an expression of power-political interests. It’s also about the climate. The latest figures show how far the world community still is from achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. In the best-case scenario, the world is heading for global warming of 2.5 degrees, according to a UN report at the end of October. This is an improvement on last year. However, a 2.8-degree world is still possible, according to the gloomy warning.
According to the projection, global emissions would continue to increase by 10 percent by 2030. They should actually fall drastically from now on. The 1.5 degree target of the Paris Agreement, which was still the focus of the climate negotiations in Glasgow last year, can no longer be achieved realistically and without major detours.
We are in a crisis, I do not exaggerate when I say so. I cannot find an example in history when so many malevolent forces have come together at the same time.
— Nana Akufo-Addo (@NAkufoAddo) October 30, 2022
The geopolitical situation is currently overshadowing the negotiations. The consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine and compensation payments for high energy and living costs are weighing heavily on government budgets. Relations between the US and China, the two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, have been strained for months. And the transatlantic partners EU and USA are also arguing behind the scenes about the subsidy policy of the American climate program, which was decided in August as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. The climate is no excuse for protectionism, senior political officials said in Brussels on Friday. “We must avoid a subsidy race.”
Money worries burden the negotiations
A lot of money is at stake in the climate negotiations every year. This not only plays a role in the power struggle among the global economic powers. Because European governments and the USA also want China to make a financial contribution to supporting poorer countries in the future.
This year, one question in particular is on the minds of those involved: How can affected island states and developing countries be supported in dealing with the consequences and inevitable damage of climate change that are already occurring today? The images of natural disasters of the past few months have burned themselves into the minds of politicians and activists. Not a briefing goes by without reference to the violence of the floods in Pakistan. The destruction is being used as a memorial to the damage and casualties that climate change will demand if left unchecked.
Frustration among developing countries is growing. For years they have been demanding that the industrialized countries provide them with more financial support. For years, progress on these issues was blocked by the rich industrialized countries, above all the USA and Europe. Things have now started to move. We would have to acknowledge that there is already considerable climate damage, especially in the poorest countries, said German Development Minister Svenja Schulze on Sunday. “These countries are right to demand solidarity, and the industrialized countries have not had an adequate response to this in recent years.”
A lot of trust was lost in the process. In 2010, industrialized countries committed to providing 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to tackle the climate crisis in poorer countries. The amount is a drop in the ocean compared to today’s requirement. However, he was not reached. According to one Report, compiled by Germany and Canada at the end of October, the sum of collective climate finance in 2020 was $83.3 billion.
The coming weeks will show how willing there will be to provide new funds and support. Those involved are already saying that the success of the conference depends on it.