Leading cryptocurrency still directionless after market crash

Bitcoin (BTC): The 19,000 US dollars could be defended

BTCBTC rate: $20,096 (previous week: $19,158)

Short-term resistances/goals: 20,378 USD, 20,963 USD, $ 21,892, 22,834 /23.289 USD, $ 25,498, $ 26,734 USD, $ 29,696/28.107, $ 29.975, $ 30,612. USD

Short-term supports: $19,720/20,036, $19,212/18,950, $18,585, $17,909/17,567, $16,180, $14,838, $14,311, $13,858

Recap Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin price volatility continued to decrease over the past few trading days. Since the last price analysis, it has been moving in a range between the 23 Fibonacci retracement at $18,624 on the downside and the 78 Fibonacci retracement at $20,963 on the upside. The trading margin was a good 12 percentage points.
• However, in recent days, the bulls managed to successively push higher local lows.
• Despite increased setbacks on the classic stock market – the leading German index Dax40 reached a new low for the year yesterday, Tuesday – the key crypto currency managed to stabilize above the important price mark of USD 19,000.

• Noisy OnChain analysis platform Glassnode, a total of 151,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from global crypto exchanges in June – the highest value ever recorded since records began. In the past, high outflows were a bullish indication of the price development.
• Glassnode has also seen a dynamic increase in bitcoin addresses worth more than one BTC over the past 3 weeks. Investors apparently see the current price range as an opportunity to stock up more.
• Also bullish: Bitcoin remains despite the continued strength of the US dollar – this reached a 19-year high yesterday Tuesday – stable in its trading range around $20,000.

Increased volatility in the coming trading days

• Important economic data are expected this Wednesday evening and next Friday. They could significantly influence prices on the global financial markets in both directions.
• The US Noteback Fed releases its FOMC Minutes at 8pm this Wednesday. Monthly U.S. jobs data will be released on July 8 at 2:30 p.m. Investors should keep an eye on both.
• Also to be rated positively: the relative strength of the entire crypto market, despite ongoing bad news from the lending sector. In the last few hours of trading, another provider had to file for bankruptcy, Voyager Digital.

• Both indicators, the RSI and the MACD, generated fresh buy signals in the 4-hour chart. On a daily basis, the MACD indicator continues to show a buy signal.
• The relevant price marks for the coming days and weeks are unchanged at USD 19,000 as support on the bottom and USD 21,892 on the top.
• Only when the Bitcoin price can sustainably break out of this trading range can a directional decision be planned for the coming period.

Bullish Scenario (BTC):

• Bitcoin tried again yesterday, Tuesday, towards the upper edge of the relevant trading range, but failed at the golden pocket of the range between USD 17,567 and USD 21,892 at USD 20,378 for the 4-hour closing price.
• In the short term, the buyer camp must now attempt to sustainably break through this resistance in order to generate space towards USD 20,967. If this mark is surpassed and the horizontal resist at USD 21,373 is left behind, another attempt to break out in the turquoise zone around USD 21,892 can be expected.

• A sustained breakout above this strong resistance area will activate further price potential towards the resistance area between USD 22,834 and USD 23,289. The EMA200 (blue) in the 4-hour chart is currently running at USD 22,834 and the higher-level 38 Fibonacci retracement at USD 23,233.
• In this zone, the bulls may want to recapture more profits. The Bärenlager will also plan another attempt at selling.
• If Bitcoin develops enough buying momentum to sustainably break through this area as well, a subsequent increase up to USD 24,291 is likely.

The recovery is gaining momentum

• If Bitcoin overcomes this zone without any significant setbacks, the recovery movement to the north will continue to gain momentum.
• Although there are also potential reversal levels at USD 25,498 and USD 26,170, a direct rise to the 61 Fibonacci retracement at USD 26,734 is more likely. Here it should be difficult for Bitcoin to break out directly to the top at the first attempt.
• If Bitcoin can also recapture this resistance in the long term, the orange zone between USD 27,696 and the old tear-off edge at USD 28,104 will come into focus.

• Even a direct spike up to USD 28,607 would be conceivable. At the latest at this price mark, increased profit-taking is to be expected.
• Should Bitcoin subsequently jump above this resistance area, further targets at USD 29,256 and USD 29,975 will be activated.
• The maximum bullish price targets for the coming trading weeks are unchanged at USD 31,750 and USD 32,383.
• As long as Bitcoin does not stabilize above USD 32,383, a price increase in this zone can be interpreted as a technical recovery movement.

Bearish Scenario (BTC):

• Although the bears prevented a rise back to the top of the range at USD 21,892 several times in the last few trading days, they themselves did not succeed in selling the BTC price below USD 18,950 at the end of the day.
• The sell-side now has to do everything in the short term to maneuver Bitcoin back below USD 19,881. The next step is to cap the BTC price below USD 19,720 per 4-hour close.
• Only then does the probability of a trend-following movement increase up to the 38 Fibonacci retracement of the current movement at USD 19,219.
• If this support is also broken and the support mark at USD 18,950 is also undercut, the 23 Fibonacci retracement at USD 18,585 will come back into the focus of investors.

Another wave of sell-offs is imminent

• If the bears manage to undercut this support as well, a directional decision will be made at USD 17,909. Abandoning this support mark puts the low for the year at USD 17,567 back in the focus of investors.
• If the classic stock market also generates new annual lows at the same time, Bitcoin should break down to the support at USD 16,180. This course mark is taken from the daily chart.
• If the bull camp’s attempt to stabilize fails, Bitcoin is likely to fall again and correct to the green support area between USD 14,837 and USD 13,858.
• This support area remains the maximum bearish price target for the coming months.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.98.