estimates
PARIS (awp/afp) – Abstention should reach a new record on Sunday for a first round of legislative elections, between 52.5% and 53% according to estimates by five polling institutes, more than a point more than the previous record of 2017 (51.3%).
The abstention rate should be 52.5% according to Harris interactive for M6/RTL and OpinionWay for Cnews and Europe 1, 52.8% according to Elabe for BFMTV/L’Express/RMC and 53% according to Ipsos/Sopra Steria for FranceTV/RadioFrance/France24/RFI/LCP and Ifop for TF1/LCI.
After Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term marked by record abstention in local elections, and in particular the regional Bérézina of 2021 (66.72%), the last presidential election in April had marked a rebound (26.3% of abstention in the first round), which will therefore have been short-lived.
As political scientists point out, the presidential election remains the queen election of the Fifth Republic, the only one that really counts in the eyes of voters, and the legislative elections, especially since the reversal of the calendar which has placed them since 2002 in the wake of that these, are struggling more and more to mobilize.
Since 1993 (30.8%), abstention in the first round of legislative elections has continued to grow and the movement has further increased significantly since 2007 (39.6%) and 2012 (42.7%) and especially since 2017 (51.3%).
“The very personalized stake of the presidential election still manages to arouse the interest of the French, but it sucks up all the stakes of the other types of polls, even the one – essential – which consists in electing the deputies to the National Assembly. “, as summarized by the pollster (Ipsos) Mathieu Gallard.
el/ib/dch