These are the last hours of campaigning for candidates in the legislative elections. Two days before the second round, tension is mounting in the camps and the Together! bringing together the Republic on the move, the MoDem and Horizons, is not guaranteed to obtain an absolute majority. What are the stakes now this Sunday?
Towards a new abstention record?
The key to the ballot will once again be participation. Last week, the abstention rate hit a record high of 52.5%, nearly three points higher than five years ago. According to Ifop projections for the Sunday newspaper, thethe French are not preparing to vote more than in the first round, abstention would even increase very slightly by a few tenths.
This is neither good news for Jean-Luc Mélenchon nor for Emmanuel Macron. When one calls for a burst of mobilization among young people, in particular to thwart the reforms of the head of state, the other hopes for an awakening of republican consciences.
It remains to be seen who will have the last word at the exit of the polls. For Emmanuel Macron the objective is clear: to obtain an absolute majority, in other words more than 289 seats of deputies, to implement his project without being embarrassed in Parliament.
Otherwise, he will have to deal with the right, which some of the Republican candidates hope for. In the event of a relative majority, they are the ones who will be able to tip the balance one way or the other on the most emblematic reforms, such as that of retirement.
To be the first opposing force
For the left alliance, the challenge is to confirm the dynamics of the first round by winning the maximum number of constituencies to register as the first opposition force in the hemicycle.
On the side of the National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen hopes to exceed the threshold of 15 elected candidates, which should be largely the case, whereas five years ago, only eight candidates under this label had won. The former presidential candidate should therefore be able to form a group at the Palais Bourbon and this would be a first for 36 years.
The Rassemblement National would have advantages: more material and financial resources, more speaking time and secure positions in parliamentary committees.
One certainty: with a left that promises to be much more represented, an RN more powerful than it was, and Republicans who limit damage: Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year term will have nothing to do with the first . Each text will be a fight for Macronie.