VSow to deal with increasingly intertwined systemic crises? Published on January 11, 2023, on the eve of the Davos forum which takes place from January 16 to 20, the World Economic Forum annual report on global risks invites world leaders to think about the interactions between energy, climate, economic, geopolitical and social crises.
By 2033, the main risks identified by the 1,300 experts involved do not differ significantly from the previous year: the failure of policies to adapt to and reduce climate change, the collapse of ecosystems and biodiversity as well as extreme weather events are still at the top of the most severe risks that societies will have to face.
In the short term, however, the rise in geopolitical tensions, illustrated and accelerated by the war in Ukraine, as well as the inflationary crisis caused in particular by the COVID-19 pandemic, considerably modify the outlook for the next two years and risk compromising the efforts committed to mitigating long-term crises. Although each of these crises was already well identified at the start of 2022, it has nevertheless become increasingly clear that they are deeply interconnected and risk combining and mutually aggravating each other.
The systemic risks that threaten our societies
Climate change and the loss of biodiversity thus increase the risks of food insecurity, which triggers forced migrations as well as geopolitical conflicts leading in turn to economic crises and shortages, in turn aggravating social tensions and straining the capacity of States. to deal with environmental risks.
The term “polycrisis” refers to these dangerous cocktails of systemic risks that threaten our societies and whose long-term effects are unpredictable. The concept of a polycrisis seems indisputably negative: any worsening on one of the fronts identified by risk specialists inevitably causes a hardening of other crises and can lead our societies into uncontrollable feedback loops.
Yet this idea also points to a new strategic approach: leveraging the interconnectedness of crises to maximize the impact of collective solutions. Because of these systemic links, building resilience in one area can indeed have a multiplier effect on preparedness for other risk factors.
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