From “17 + 1”, they went to “16 + 1”: in May, Vilnius slammed the door of the group launched by Beijing in 2012, and until then composed of 17 countries of Central Europe and the Balkans, including 11 members of the European Union (EU). Two months earlier, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis estimated that this format – which is part of the “new silk roads” – “Was not useful for Europe”, that he was only doing ” to divide “.
Since then, Vilnius has multiplied its positions, considered as provocations by Beijing. In May, his Parliament condemned the “Uighur genocide” in Xinjiang. In August, a Taiwanese representative office opened in the Lithuanian capital, sparking a diplomatic crisis: China, which only tolerates “Taipei representative offices”, recalled its ambassador and dismissed that of Lithuania.
For the moment, neither Estonia nor Latvia are following, even if the two Baltic States have also shunned the last summit of the “17 + 1” on February 9, being represented by ministers at this virtual meeting, at which Chinese President Xi Jinping participated. “We prefer to use the EU 27 + 1 format and address ourselves to China via the common European policies”, said the spokesperson for Kaja Kallas, the Estonian Prime Minister.
“We only saw the stick”
At the origin of this shared reluctance: a disappointment born of broken promises. If the Baltic countries have joined the Sino-European cooperation forum, “It was for purely economic reasons”, recalls Una Aleksandra Berzina-Cerenkova, researcher at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs. Beijing had made them dangle investments and privileged access to its market.
Corn “The carrot remained imaginary, and we only saw the stick”, sums up Frank Juris. The researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security in Tallinn explains: “The economic promises have not materialized. On the other hand, China has managed to increase its influence and affect the unity of the EU. “ The irony, he says, is that in the absence of economic fallout, the Baltic states have remained very little dependent on China. The sanctions imposed by Beijing, following the opening of the Taiwanese representation, therefore had little effect on the Lithuanian economy.
According to Mme Berzina-Cerenkova, the Vilnius reaction should be analyzed in a national context, which saw “The awakening of a strong anti-Chinese feeling” after a series of incidents that aroused public outrage. In August 2019, first, employees of the Chinese Embassy were spotted in a counter-demonstration, organized in Vilnius, on the sidelines of a support movement in Hong Kong. A few months later, a video circulated on the Internet. It shows a Chinese tourist tearing off a cross favorable to Hong Kong pro-democracy activists on the “Hill of Crosses”, a place of pilgrimage in northern Lithuania.
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