Monday, November 1st, 2021
Lockdown for the unvaccinated?
Saxony, of all places, could become a model
From Volker Petersen
On Tuesday, the Saxon state government wants to tighten the corona measures. Prime Minister Kretschmer is in favor of a nationwide 2G model. That would be the lockdown for the unvaccinated.
Saxony, of all places, could play a pioneering role in combating the fourth corona wave. On Tuesday, the cabinet of the state government led by Michael Kretschmer is expected to adopt tightened measures. “There will be regulations on 2G,” said the Saxon government spokesman Ralph Schreiber ntv.de. The Prime Minister had already tweeted last week that 2G was “now an absolute must”. A new lockdown should definitely be avoided, and schools should also remain open.
2G could be translated as “lockdown for the unvaccinated”. Because anyone who has recovered or has been vaccinated would no longer be affected by restrictions.
The situation in the Free State is not yet catastrophic, but it is tense. The intensive care units are already 77 percent full and the seven-day incidence is approaching the 300 mark. The incidence of unvaccinated people is almost twice as high. The autumn holidays have just come to an end. Holiday returnees could trigger a further increase. At the same time, the vaccination rate is still the lowest in Germany. Only 56.7 percent are fully vaccinated. Nationwide it is exactly ten percentage points more.
Saxony already has a corona protection ordinance. On the one hand, this expires on November 16 and, on the other hand, only provides for moderate interventions if the current trend continues. It contains a “warning level” and an “overload level” at which more stringent measures are to be initiated. The warning level should apply if the incidence of hospitalization (see graphic) is seven or 650 Covid patients in the hospital or 180 in the intensive care unit for five days. The numbers are currently at this threshold. If it is exceeded, contact restrictions should apply – no more than ten people should then be allowed to meet privately or publicly, not counting those who have been vaccinated and those who have recovered.
2G so far only provided for “overload level”
In the event that the numbers continue to rise, the current Saxon regulation would provide for even stricter contact restrictions and a mixture of 2G and 3G restrictions. This “overload level” would only be reached if the hospitalization incidence were 12 or 1300 Covid patients in the hospital or 420 in the intensive care unit – more than twice as many as currently. In the new vaccination ordinance, which could be passed on Tuesday, this limit for 2G measures should be significantly reduced.
Should they be introduced “now”, as Kretschmer put it, the 2G measures would have to become mandatory in the current situation. 2G measures are already possible, as everywhere in Germany, but they are still voluntary and are only being implemented to a minor extent between Plauen, Leipzig and Görlitz. It is conceivable that the 2G measures will be extended to the entire catering trade. That would then mean that you could only enter a restaurant with proof of having recovered or been vaccinated.
Saxony is one of the federal states hardest hit by the fourth wave. Only Thuringia still has a higher seven-day incidence (303.3), while most of the hotspots are in Bavaria. Due to its low vaccination rate, Saxony is more exposed to the virus – which is only slightly mitigated by the highest rate of recovered people (a good 7 percent). In cities such as Leipzig, Dresden and Chemnitz the incidence is currently still below 300, in rural areas and especially in the district of Saxon Switzerland / Eastern Ore Mountains it is significantly higher at 453.
Saxony model?
In addition to stricter restrictions on public life, the state also advertises third-party vaccination more aggressively than other countries. Last Friday this was recommended for everyone over 18. This was already possible due to the current vaccination ordinance of the Federal Ministry of Health; However, there is confusion on this point because the Standing Vaccination Commission only recommends this from the age of 70 – and the Conference of Health Ministers deviated from it again with a recommendation for everyone aged 60 and over.
The fact that the situation in Saxony is more dramatic than elsewhere has a lot to do with the low willingness to vaccinate. But even in the rest of the republic it is not enough to simply sit out the fourth wave of the unvaccinated. Saxony could become a model case – because what happens there threatens other countries as well. The basic problems such as the threat of overloading the intensive care units and insufficient willingness to vaccinate are everywhere. In this respect, it will be exciting to see whether the Saxon model is successful and also how it is received by the population.
Since the virus knows no borders, the commuters who work in neighboring countries such as Thuringia and Bavaria are a problem for the state. A nationwide coordinated approach should therefore be desirable from the point of view of the Saxon state government. In the past few days the calls for a new Prime Minister’s conference have become louder – Health Minister Jens Spahn, for example, spoke out in favor of it. Kretschmer had recently criticized him sharply because Spahn had spoken out in favor of an end to the pandemic emergency. “On the contrary, it is just gaining strength and danger again,” replied the Prime Minister.