The Paris Stock Exchange is down for the third session in a row while Wall Street nibbles a few points in the first trade. After the disappointment caused by consumer prices in the United States and the subsequent relative lull in producer prices, the market is digesting a new wave of indicators which paint a contrasting portrait of the American economy, but which is unlikely to change. undermine the Fed’s determination to raise interest rates significantly to bring inflation under control.
Around 4 p.m., the Bedroom 40 lost 0.44% to 6,195.26 points in a listless business volume of 1.3 billion euros. In New York, the Dow Jones gains 0.23% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.10%.
From retail sales to industrial production
Retail sales rose 0.3% in August across the Atlantic and fell by the same amount excluding automobiles, against respectively -0.1% and 0% expected by the market. The weekly jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 213,000 (227,000 expected). Manufacturing activity in the New York area showed signs of improvement in September while remaining in a contraction phase, with the local Fed branch index coming out at -1.5 points after -31.3 in august. Finally, industrial production recorded a surprise contraction of 0.2% in August, while the market was expecting stabilization.
Investors remain focused on the Fed’s next monetary decision, scheduled for Wednesday. The market seems to have fully priced in a 75 basis point rate hike, after two tightenings of the same magnitude in June and July. According to CME Group calculations based on contracts future on Fed funds, the probability of such an increase is estimated at 80% (75% on Wednesday), which would bring them to 3%-3.25%, and that of a rise of one percentage point is estimated at 20%.
Recommended banks and hotels
Societe Generale appreciated by 1.3%, Morgan Stanley raised its price target from 32 to 34 euros while maintaining its opinion of “outperformance”. The American broker more generally raised to “ attractive » his opinion on European banks, which he considers inexpensive and resilient in terms of profits.
Accor takes for its part 2.3%. Berenberg revised its target price from 32 to 34 euros on the title of the hotel group in a sector where the acceleration of the recovery is not reflected in prices. The intermediary anticipates a strong increase in revenue per room (RevPar) in 2023 across the sector.
Growth stocks are generally down in an environment where central bank policy is tightening in favor of value stocks. Hermes thus loses 2.8%, Capgemini 2.6% and Dassault Systems 2.7%.
TotalEnergys fell 21% in the wake of the barrel of Brent from the North Sea, down 2.7%.
LVMH announced a plan to reduce its energy consumption by 10% between October 2022 and October 2023, thanks to the extinction of the night lighting of its stores in France and the reduction of the interior temperature in its premises. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has asked companies to put in place energy saving plans in the face of the risk of supply disruptions in the context of the Ukrainian conflict. In July, Emmanuel Macron set a target of reducing energy consumption by 10% in France.