(CercleFinance.com) – The title fell by more than 4% on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and posted a decline of nearly 19% in one week.
Oddo estimates that Lufthansa will not be able to offset the entire increase in its fuel bill in 2022 despite its comfortable coverage (63% of needs at $74/bl compared to 51%e for Air France-KLM and 60% for IAG ).
‘Following the publication and especially the update of our Brent assumptions ($98.8 in 2022, $88.2 in 2023 and $82 in 2024), we are reducing our Adjusted EBIT from 562 ME to 156 ME for 2022 and from 1587 ME to 1263 ME in 2023’.
‘Based on our assumption of a barrel at $98.8, we are modeling a bill of 5.6 MdE (+3.2 MdE compared to 2021). With the spot prices of oil and the E/$, the bill would increase by an additional 0.6 billion Euros’ indicates Oddo.
Oddo confirms its neutral opinion and its target price of 7.2 E to reflect the steps to clean up the balance sheet that have already been completed and the leeway for additional deleveraging with the disposals to come.
“However, the uncertainty surrounding the Ukrainian conflict (duration, scope of sanctions, volatility of Brent prices, etc.) does not yet allow us to adopt more aggressive hypotheses for the evolution of traffic,” adds Oddo.
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