(CercleFinance.com) – Oddo points out that the luxury sector has suffered a stock market correction in recent sessions as the sequence of publications on the year 2021 is about to begin.
‘ This correction reflects, in our view, two elements 1) the taking into account of increases in real interest rates that are stronger than expected so far and therefore more penalizing on valuations 2) increased fears of a deterioration in the momentum ( China situation and COVID impact, possible slowdown in consumption in the USA) ‘ indicates the analyst.
‘ The very good performance of local demand in Europe, the absence of a notable slowdown in the US and the likely improvement in Asia sequentially in Q4 compared to Q3 due to a slightly less penalizing pandemic situation (without taking into account a favorable base effect in Japan) make it possible to count on an overall 2-year growth close to +25% in Q3, i.e. a rate including/understanding between +15% and +20%’ adds Oddo.
The analyst estimates that the main brands in the Fashion and Leather Goods division of LVMH and the jewelry division of Richemont (House jewelry division) should remain the leaders in terms of growth rate over 2 years with scores close to +40% on the launched in previous quarters.
Oddo indicates in its study of the day that Gucci at Kering should be back to clearly double-digit 2-year retail growth (Oddo +12%, the consensus is close to +15%) under the effect of a favorable conjunction (effect new collection, reinforced marketing, best outfit in Asia).
Oddo believes that the sector as a whole now looks a little more attractive. ‘ Which suggests, at the very least, that the prospect of tangible gains is now more assured over a 12-month horizon on the stocks that we prefer and for which our opinion is Outperformance. These values are always LVMH (OC 802 E), Hermès (OC 1660 E) and Moncler (OC 71 E)’.
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