Mali: after the expulsion of the French ambassador, what future for Operation Barkhane?


William Molinié, edited by Solène Leroux with AFP
modified to

07:06, February 01, 2022

New crossing in the tensions between Paris and Bamako. The Malian transitional government demanded on Monday the return within 72 hours of the French ambassador. Monday evening, on the side of France, from a diplomatic source, we took “note” of this return. How is this decision a snub for Paris?

Mali’s state television reported on Monday that Mali’s military-dominated authorities have decided to expel the French ambassador, in a further escalation of the falling out between Bamako and Paris. A real snub for Paris. France has invested heavily in the region. In January 2013, it was at the request of the Malians that the French army intervened to repel a jihadist offensive. Since then, 53 French soldiers have lost their lives on the spot. France trained the Malian army, it fought in the north of the country, a region completely abandoned by Bamako.

And today, by demanding the departure of the French ambassador within 72 hours, the junta is showing Paris the way out. In any case, the dialogue is broken with the putschist Colonel Assimi Goïta. He accumulates insults with regard to France, but also to the countries of West Africa since their ambassadors, too, have all already left Bamako.

The end of Operation Barkhane?

The ruling junta has also made a pact with the Russians from the private military company Wagner. Does this return of the French ambassador to Paris mean that this is the end of Operation Barkhane? Paradoxically, the French soldiers cannot stop the fighting overnight. On the contrary, the instruction is above all not to leave any ground to the terrorists in the desert. To prevent them from getting closer to Barkhane’s positions and Gao, the epicenter of military logistics in the Sahel, being trapped.

All this confirms what we have been hearing within the French armies for several months now: the French presence in the current format has no future in Mali. The decision of a final withdrawal is political, it belongs only to Emmanuel Macron, the chief of the armies. The question is where to fall back? Several hypotheses are on the table: Niger, Chad or a country in the Gulf of Guinea. The objective is to maintain an intervention capacity to fight against large-scale jihadist incursions.



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