William Molinie
modified to
7:13 a.m., February 17, 2022
Emmanuel Macron must announce this Thursday morning during a press conference the withdrawal of French and European troops from Mali. It will take several months for the French army to leave Gao, the epicenter of military logistics in the Sahel. Four to six months, depending on the most optimistic scenario. One or even two years, predicts a former military leader who operated in the region.
No question of leaving equipment in the hands of the junta
Today, 2,400 French soldiers are present in Mali. Redeploying them by plane will probably not pose a problem, but it is the entire garrison behind that must be evacuated. Hundreds of armored vehicles, transmission facilities… There is no question of leaving equipment in the hands of the junta.
Without counting the convoys which will have to be protected from possible attempts at terrorist attacks. The timetable is therefore very uncertain, especially if the putschist colonels in place decide not to facilitate these trips. It will take time. But once the French soldiers have left, what are the concrete risks for Mali?
The “chaos” in the coming months
It is the great unknown. The Malian authorities will be faced with their responsibilities. The Fama, the Malian armed forces are certainly better trained thanks to the French, but many military leaders predict chaos in the coming months.
The risk is that terrorist groups from the desert will advance towards the southwest and approach Bamako. “It is not Wagner’s mercenaries who will make the weight,” foresees a former intelligence chief. In Paris, it is believed that one day or another the junta will be overthrown and the Malians will again ask for help from France.
What assessment for Operation Barkhane?
The withdrawal of French troops is not a military defeat, insists those around Emmanuel Macron. A source at the general staff recalls that if France had not intervened in 2013 at the request of the Malians, the country would today be a caliphate in the hands of jihadists.
In nine years of presence, the French special forces can brandish without blushing operational victories. Several terrorist leaders were killed. It is indisputable. The Malian army is now better trained, although many military leaders predict chaos in the coming months.
Like this former intelligence general convinced that Wagner’s mercenaries will not be able to hold ground against armed groups. Defeat, on the other hand, is diplomatic and political. Efforts to force the junta to engage in a democratic process have failed. As a result, France is pushed out. The army has failed to win the hearts of Malians who now see it as an occupying force.
Paris withdraws. But will not stay far, in Niger, Chad and the Gulf of Guinea.