Market: Caution should prevail with the debate on the US debt ceiling


by Laetitia Volga

PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to see little change at the opening on Monday, pending concrete progress in the negotiations on the American debt ceiling.

The first indications available point to a gain of 0.08% for the Parisian CAC 40, 0.04% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.12% for the FTSE in London and 0.05% for the EuroStoxx 50.

Joe Biden and Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy will meet today to continue discussions on the debt ceiling, less than two weeks before the fateful date when the United States could find itself in default. , namely June 1 according to the Treasury.

On Friday, reports that talks were again at an impasse rocked Wall Street, even as the Federal Reserve chairman indicated there might not be a need to raise U.S. interest rates so much given the tightening of credit conditions with the banking crisis.

Jerome Powell also pointed out that after a year of rapid increases, Committee members could afford to make “cautious assessments” of the impact of monetary tightening on the economic outlook, an approach perceived as “dovish” by the markets. .

Futures suggest an 86% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting in June and cut 50 basis points by the end of the year.

VALUES TO FOLLOW:

AT WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange ended Friday down slightly after the announcement of a break in negotiations in Washington on raising the debt ceiling of the United States.

Another factor that weighed on the trend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told US bank bosses, according to CNN, that a consolidation of the sector could be necessary after the setbacks of several establishments, which penalized the values ​​of the regional banks.

The Dow Jones index fell 0.33% to 33,426.63 points, the broader S&P-500 lost 0.14% to 4,191.98 points and the Nasdaq Composite 0.24% to 12,657.90 points. .

Over the week, the Dow nevertheless gained 0.38%, the S&P-500 1.65% and the Nasdaq 3.04%. These are the largest weekly gains since late March for the S&P and the Nasdaq.

At individual values, Foot Locker plunged 27% after its full-year sales and profit guidance was downgraded due to weak demand and heavy promotions to clear inventory.

The sporting goods distributor led in its fall Nike (-3.5%) and Under Armor (-4.2%).

Morgan Stanley lost 2.7% as the bank announced that its CEO James Gorman would step down as chief executive within the next 12 months.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index is up 0.71%, which allows it to reach a new high since August 1990. Since the start of the year, it has taken more than 18.5%, when the MSCI world index shows an increase of 9.2%

The improvement in Japanese equities can be explained, among other things, by an overall very solid earnings season, purchases from abroad, a weaker yen with the ultra-accommodative policy of the Bank of Japan and the recovery in consumption after the COVID crisis.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite gained 0.11% and the CSI 300 0.38%.

EXCHANGES/RATES

On the foreign exchange market, the euro rose to 1.0816 dollars and the greenback, at the prospect of a break from the Fed on its rates, lost 0.1% against a basket of currencies.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Neel Kashkari said he may support a status quo in June to give officials more time to assess the effects of past rate hikes and the outlook. of inflation.

The yield on ten-year Treasury bills lost more three basis points to 3.6593%.

OIL

US debt concerns and Chinese demand drive oil prices lower: Brent fell 0.73% to $75.03 a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.85% to 70, $94.

NO ECONOMIC INDICATOR ON TODAY’S AGENDA

(Laetitia Volga, editing by Kate Entringer)

Copyright © 2023 Thomson Reuters



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