by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise on Friday in the wake of Wall Street and Asian markets, but the last session of the week should remain cautious like previous sessions, concerns about the risk of economic recession and the prolonged continuation of monetary tightening by the major central banks, which could limit gains.
Futures contracts on indices suggest an increase of 0.38% for the CAC 40 in Paris, 0.26% for the Dax in Frankfurt, 0.11% for the FTSE 100 in London and 0.33% for the EuroStoxx 50.
Since the publication last Friday of the US employment report, risk aversion has dominated the financial markets while several bosses of major US banks have multiplied warnings of a recession in the United States next year.
Wells Fargo also said Thursday evening forecast a slowdown in global growth to just 1.7% in 2023 against a previous forecast of 2.4%.
At the same time, the approach next week of monetary policy meetings of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) hardly encourages risk taking.
In today’s statistics, investors are awaiting producer price figures for November in the United States and the first estimate of the Michigan confidence index for December.
AT WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended with a slight rebound on Thursday, after five sessions of decline for the Standard & Poor’s 500, driven by technology stocks, while the rise in weekly jobless claims in the United States gave hope of a slowdown in rising interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.55%, or 183.56 points, to 33,781.48 points.
The broader S&P-500 gained 29.59 points, or 0.75%, to 3,963.51 points.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced for its part by 123.45 points (1.13%) to 11,082.00 points.
IN ASIA
At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended with a gain of 1.18% to 27,901.01 points and the broader Topix rose 1.03% to 1,961.56 points.
In China, the SSE Composite of Shanghai gains 0.3% and the CSI 300 gains 0.99%, the indices being supported by the hope of an acceleration of the Chinese economy in the light of the latest statements by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang after Beijing announced the easing of health restrictions.
As for Chinese economic indicators, the producer price index (PPI) fell in November for the second consecutive month, by 1.3% on an annual basis, while the consumer price index (CPI), , decelerated by 1.6% over one year.
On the geopolitical front, two U.S. officials said Washington plans to impose new sanctions on Russia and China this Friday, which could affect the rest of the session.
RATE
Yields on US Treasury bonds fell in trade in Asia, with ten-year yields posting at 3.459% against a close in the United States at 3.493% and two-year bonds at 4.29% against 4.312% the day before.
In Europe, the yield of the ten-year German Bund, which ended Thursday almost unchanged, took just over a point on Friday to 1.832%, while that of two years rose 2.7 points to 2.091%.
CHANGES
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar lost 0.21% on Friday against a basket of reference currencies after falling 0.4% the day before.
The euro, up 0.18%, is trading at $1.0575, close to its five-month high at $1.0594.
OIL
Oil prices, penalized on Thursday by expectations of the imminent return to service of the important Keystone pipeline between Canada and the United States, rose again on Friday.
Brent rose 0.47% to 76.51 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.57% to 71.87 dollars.
(Written by Claude Chendjou)
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