(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange should open on a cautious note Monday morning, in a wait-and-see context before the publication of inflation in the United States, scheduled for Thursday, and the start of the trading season. results of American companies, which will be given the next day.
Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘futures’ contract on the CAC 40 index – delivery at the end of January – dropped 14.5 points to 7,417 points, announcing a continuation of last week’s downward movement.
The Parisian market had a difficult first week for the New Year, dropping around 1.6% in four days, which led it to break the important technical threshold of 7,500 points.
Wall Street also fell for this first week of the year, with among others losses of more than 3% for the Nasdaq, which thus ended a sequence of nine consecutive weeks of progression.
‘After the sharp rise recorded by the stock markets in recent months, it is not surprising that the markets are taking a break,’ said Craig Fehr, analyst at Edward Jones.
Investors notably had to digest a series of economic indicators, employment in the lead, having tempered the prospect of a rapid reduction in interest rates.
‘Rates will fall’, remind the Danske Bank teams. ‘The question is when and to what extent this will happen,’ asks the Danish bank.
Many strategists point out that stock markets tend to perform well before and after the Fed’s first rate cuts, but investors will have to be patient before they can refine their estimates.
It is therefore a climate of wait-and-see that should dominate before the publication, on Thursday, of inflation data in the United States, which will help determine the trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
According to consensus, the consumer price index (CPI) should have accelerated to +0.2% in December, compared to +0.1% in November, due to a less rapid decline in food prices. essence.
In its basic version, the CPI excluding volatile elements such as food and energy should have fallen from +0.3% in November to +0.2% last month.
The fourth quarter results season for American companies is also due to begin this Friday with the publications of the major banking groups JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo.
From a historical perspective, the performance of stock markets during the month of January is generally a good indicator of what awaits them for the rest of the year.
According to data compiled since 1929 by S&P Dow Jones Indices and reported by the broker John Hancock, in 70.5% of cases, the S&P 500 index posted a positive performance over the entire year after having gained of land in January or suffered an annual loss when the market declined in the first month of the year.
In the bond compartment, the yield on ten-year American Treasury bonds remains above the critical bar of 4%, while its German equivalent confirms its strength at around 2.16%.
On the energy market, oil prices are consolidating after their strong increase over the past week, due to a new episode of localized geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea.
Brent fell by 1.2% to $77.8 per barrel while American light crude (WTI) lost 1.8% to $72.8.
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