by Claude Chendjou
PARIS – The main European stock markets are expected to see very slight variations on Tuesday, with the markets looking for reasons to prolong the recent improvement born from the easing in the bond market.
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should gain 0.03% at the opening. The Dax in Frankfurt could gain 0.08%, while the FTSE 100 in London is expected to fall by 0.07%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to be practically stable (+0.02%).
The publication at 7:00 p.m. GMT of the minutes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting of October 31 and November 1 could provide investors with information on the debates within the American central bank while the market is betting on a status quo for the December meeting and a first rate cut, of at least 25 basis points, by May 2024. According to the CME group’s Fedwatch barometer, some traders even estimate that this drop could occur as early as March.
Other indicators on economic activity in the United States and Europe are also expected in the week when the session will be shortened on Wall Street due to the Thanksgiving holiday, while promotions linked to “Black Friday” will constitute a test of consumer appetite.
In terms of individual stocks, semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia will close this Tuesday after the close of the quarterly results season for American new technology giants in New York.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended up on Monday, driven in particular by Microsoft after the announcement of the arrival in the group of several specialists in artificial intelligence (AI), first and foremost Sam Altman, while the decline in bond yields also favored the equity markets.
The Dow Jones index gained 0.58%, or 203.76 points, to 35,151.04 points.
The broader S&P-500 gained 33.36 points, or 0.74%, to 4,547.38 points.
The Nasdaq Composite advanced 159.05 points (1.13%) to 14,284.53 points, finishing at its highest level since July 31.
Upheavals in the field of AI animated the session, with Microsoft gaining 2.05% and setting a new session record after the announcement of the arrival of Sam Altman, former director of OpenAI, and Greg Brockman, co-founder of the company that created ChatGPT, to lead a new AI research team.
The entire technology sector benefited from this momentum, notably Nvidia (+2.27%) and Apple (+0.92%).
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the volatile Nikkei index ended down 0.1% at 33,354.14 points, while the broader Topix fell 0.20% to 2,367.79 points. Japanese stocks have gained around 28% since the start of the year, marking the best performance in Asia.
The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) increased by 0.97% to 510.11 points after reaching its highest since September 18 at 511.05. Over the month as a whole, the index is up 7% at this stage, heading towards its best monthly performance since January.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite finished almost unchanged (-0.01%) and the CSI 300 increased by 0.13%.
EXCHANGES/RATES
The dollar depreciated by 0.20% against a basket of reference currencies after a decline of 2% last week. The greenback is at a two-month low, with traders remaining convinced that the Fed is done with raising rates.
The euro took advantage of this to advance by 0.18%, to 1.0958 dollars, and the pound sterling also by 0.18%, to 1.2526 dollars.
On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds fell by almost three basis points, to 4.3945%, after losing 19 points last week.
The yield on the German Bund of the same maturity dropped four points, to 2.576%.
OIL
The oil market is falling in a context of concerns about demand which takes precedence over a possible further reduction in production in OPEC+ countries: Brent falls by 0.69% to 81.75 dollars per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) by 0.71% to $77.28.
(Written by Claude Chendjou, edited by Bertrand Boucey and Blandine Hénault)
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