(Reuters) – Investors will have plenty to keep busy next week with the release of U.S. jobs data and euro zone inflation figures, as Chinese authorities push to get the economy moving again. will remain closely followed.
Overview of the market agenda for the next few days.
1/ RESISTANCE TEST
In a context of bond yields at their highest and equity markets under pressure, the major economic indicators expected in the coming days in the United States will give a new insight into the state of health of the American economy.
Investors are worried about the surprising resilience of economic activity in the United States, which argues in favor of a high rate environment for an extended period.
On Friday, the official report on job creations will attract all the attention. The previous report for July showed that the economy had created fewer jobs than expected but the solid increase in wages and the drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5% suggest a still tight labor market.
Also on the menu for the week: Tuesday, the household confidence index; Wednesday, the second estimate of US GDP for the second quarter; Thursday, the PCE inflation index, a measure favored by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
These data will be released after the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole and as the yield on ten-year Treasuries hit a high since 2007 this week.
2/ IN THE HARD
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its rates continuously for a year in order to curb inflation, raising its deposit rate from 0% to 3.75% over this period.
If it did not have to think too much about inflationary pressures, now the situation is more complex. Data suggesting a sharp slowdown in economic activity convinced many market participants that a pause in rate hikes was likely in September.
Preliminary eurozone inflation data for August, which will be released on Thursday, will be a key element in the decision-making of ECB officials.
Consumer prices in the eurozone rose 5.3% in July after 5.5% in June, and economists polled by Reuters expect a further decline, to 5.1% in August.
3/ CHINESE LINER
China is taking more and more measures to revitalize stock markets and a yuan under pressure, a faltering property market and a shrinking economy, except for those that investors are calling for: measures bold fiscal stimulus.
At the BRICS summit held earlier this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping called the Chinese economy a “giant ship” that would “move forward”.
The PMI indices which will be published on Thursday and Friday will give an overview of the trajectory of this liner which seems to be sinking more and more.
(Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Yoruk Bahceli in Amsterdam, and Nigel Hunt and Dhara Ranasinghe in London, compiled by Karin Strohecker; Blandine Hénault for the French version, editing by Kate Entringer)
Copyright © 2023 Thomson Reuters