(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange should advance at the opening on Monday pending the publication, later this week, of several key economic indicators.
Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘futures’ contract on the CAC 40 index – November delivery – advanced 27.5 points to 7075.5 points, suggesting a green start to the week.
Against all odds, the stock markets are doing better than resisting this fall, as illustrated by Wall Street’s positive close on Friday evening for a second consecutive week.
Over the week which has just ended, the Nasdaq gained around 2% after having already posted its best weekly performance since the start of the year the previous week.
Investors were, however, taken by surprise last Thursday by the statements of Jerome Powell, the president of the Fed, who warned that the American central bank would not hesitate to further tighten its policy if necessary to contain inflation.
In Paris, the CAC 40 dropped almost 1% to 7,045 points on Friday, but showed a generally stable score over the past week.
If the Parisian index were to overcome its major resistance of 7050 points and return to its monthly high of 7110 points, its bullish streak could take it towards 7140 and 7180 points, estimate technical analysts.
The economic indicators expected for the week ahead should confirm that a slowdown in the global economy is indeed underway, but also that inflation is only falling very gradually.
If these statistics turn out to be worse than expected, the good resistance of global stock markets could be difficult to justify.
Among the macroeconomic indicators on the menu for the week are the latest inflation figures in the United States, but also retail sales and new data on the real estate sector.
Some important statistics are also expected in Europe, including consumer prices in October, the second estimate of third quarter GDP and the ZEW index of German investor sentiment.
This data could lead to renewed volatility in the bond sector, already subject to significant roller coaster movements in recent times.
The past week ended with divergent developments on both sides of the Atlantic, with a decline in debts denominated in euros and a small technical jump in T-Bonds despite Thursday’s air gap due to the semi -failure of a US Treasury issue.
‘The volatility of the long parts of the yield curve remains very high, with curves still inverted despite the recent movement, which leads us to maintain a preference for the short parts of the curve’, underlines François Rimeu, senior strategist at La Française AM.
From an analyst’s point of view, equity markets do not yet seem to reflect the restrictive bias currently maintained by central bank monetary policies.
“For the first time in 15 years, the normalization of interest rates and more resilient inflation than expected have made investing in bonds more efficient than in stocks,” recalls Mauro Ratto, co-founder and co-director of investments at Plenisfer.
If the results season is now coming to an end, several leading groups have planned to reveal their performances over the coming days, including Vodafone, Infineon, Siemens and Alstom.
In the United States, the week will be marked by announcements from distributors Home Depot, Target and Walmart, but also from the networking giant Cisco.
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