by Gus Trompiz
PARIS (Reuters) – Wheat futures are expected to jump on Monday when markets open after Russia announced it was withdrawing from the deal on exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, analysts said. .
Moscow, denouncing attacks targeting its navy buildings in Crimea, informed the United Nations on Saturday of the suspension of its participation in the cereal agreement concluded last July in Istanbul between Kyiv and Moscow, under the aegis of the UN. and Turkey.
Ukraine said Russia used a pretext to justify a planned disengagement and the United States blamed Moscow for using food as a weapon of war.
Wheat markets have been very sensitive from the start to news of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with both countries being among the world’s top wheat exporters. Ukraine is also a major maize exporter.
The establishment of the Black Sea Corridor, which has enabled the shipment from Ukrainian ports of more than nine million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, has in recent months helped stabilize markets and lower prices , which had previously reached record highs.
This return to relative calm on the wheat market is likely to be called into question on Monday in Chicago as in Paris, the two most active futures markets for wheat.
“The announcement effect is in any case bullish and the beginning of next week will most likely be bullish, simply because we are going to have less and less grain coming out of Ukraine,” Arthur said. Portier, from the specialized consulting firm Agritel.
A Ukrainian broker has confirmed that all grain purchases from Ukrainian Black Sea ports have been halted since Russia’s announcement on Saturday.
Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodity markets at Rabobank, believes that wheat futures could jump 5% to 10% but that this reaction could be short-lived, as Moscow’s withdrawal was partly anticipated and Russia having increased its exports.
“Exports from Russia are increasing so short-term availability from the Black Sea may continue,” he said.
Market participants will also be attentive to efforts aimed at unblocking the situation in the Black Sea, undertaken under the aegis of the UN.
Some traders and analysts note that Russia does not have the logistics capacity to fully compensate for the halt in shipments from Ukrainian ports, which could help prices rise.
“It will inevitably increase the price and suddenly, it makes the situation very dramatic for the main importers”, says Arthur Portier.
Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry said on Sunday that 218 boats were “de facto blocked” by Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the deal.
(Repetition with amended quote §10)
(Report Gus Trompiz, with Pavel Polityuk, French version Marc Angrand)
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