(Reuters) – The global economy will experience moderate growth and face many uncertainties in 2024, linked to geopolitical conflicts, tighter monetary conditions and the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), according to a survey surveyed by 60 chief economists by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and published on Monday.
Conducted each year ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, the survey seeks to highlight the priorities of policymakers and business leaders.
According to the survey, 56% of respondents expect a weakening in global growth this year, with strong divergences between geographies: while the majority of economists forecast moderate or stronger growth than in 2023 in China and the United States, the consensus is that Europe will see only weak or very weak growth this year.
The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and the Pacific is more positive, with an overwhelming majority of respondents expecting at least moderate growth in 2024.
While central banks in developed economies remain cautious on the path of price dynamics, 70% of economists surveyed expect financial conditions to ease as inflation falls and current strains on job markets are weakening.
The impacts of AI are also expected to be uneven: 94% of economists believe that this technology will significantly support productivity in developed economies over the next five years, but only 53% of them predict the same for economies low income.
Separately, the WEF published a study on the “quality” of economic growth in 107 economies, which concluded that most countries are developing in ways that are neither environmentally sustainable nor inclusive. social.
“Reviving global growth will be essential to address the key challenges we face, but growth alone will not be enough,” said Saadia Zahidi, director general of the WEF.
The WEF said it would launch a campaign to define a new approach to growth and help policymakers reconcile it with social and environmental priorities.
(Editor Mark John, French version Corentin Chappron, edited by Tangi Salaün)
Copyright © 2024 Thomson Reuters