The Taliban are still acting peacefully. There will be “no revenge on anyone,” said a Taliban negotiator in an interview. Middle East expert Ulrich Tilgner (73) fears that the Islamists will keep their promise in the long term is unlikely: “The night of long knives will come later.” Tilgner reported from the region himself for years. For Blick, he assesses the situation in Kabul and the consequences for Europe.
For Switzerland, the 73-year-old sees above all a humanitarian obligation: “Switzerland should take in certain refugees, such as the people who have worked for the FDFA or for Swiss organizations on site.” So you can be a role model for other countries. Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter has made a corresponding decision. Around 200 people, local SDC employees and their families, are to receive a humanitarian visa. However, it remains unclear where these 200 people are currently located.
“The hardliners will organize a massacre”
Some countries, such as Germany, are very cautious about evacuating local helpers, criticizes Tilgner. “There is a high risk that the Taliban will take revenge on them,” he says. And further: «I can only imagine that the hardliners will prevail in the long term and seek revenge. And organize a massacre. “
Many Afghans share these fears. And try to escape. “You have to expect that people will set in motion, also in the direction of Europe,” said the German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer in an interview. The EU is also taking action. In an interview with “La Stampa”, the Vice President of the EU Commission, Margaritis Schinas, urged a quick agreement on EU migration policy.
Middle East expert Tilgner does not believe that there will be a situation like 2015, when millions made their way to Europe: “The Taliban will no longer let people out. The Iranians won’t let them through and the Turks won’t let them in. And all of this will happen with the support of Europe. “
“Theoretically, the risk of attacks in Europe increases”
The expert also fears dire conditions for the millions of refugees who are staying in Afghanistan’s neighboring countries: “They will simply get stuck, be forgotten and continue to suffer. The number of deaths is likely to increase here too. “
Whether the IS will get a boost again with the Taliban’s takeover, whether there is even fear of new terror in Europe, cannot yet be answered, said Tilgner. “In theory, the risk of attacks in Europe is increasing,” he estimates. “The Taliban have ties to ISIS and al Qaeda. They will certainly try to set up their cells in Afghanistan. ” What that means for Europe cannot be answered for a few years.