Alexis Guilleux (in the United States), edited by Laura Laplaud
Weakened by the poor performance of his foals in the mid-term elections, Donald Trump does not seem determined to give up his great return to the political scene: the former head of state is expected to announce his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election on Tuesday. Known for his unpredictability, Donald Trump, who has been flirting for months with the idea of running again, could still change his schedule at the last minute. A retreat would however be difficult as it has raised expectations. This speech “will probably be the most important in the history of the United States”, thus declared the real estate magnate, always fond of superlatives, in a message to his supporters.
The predicted “giant wave” did not materialize
Coming to power in 2016 by creating the greatest modern political surprise, Donald Trump had flouted all customs during his presidency before leaving Washington after his defeat against Joe Biden – whom he never recognized. This new candidacy would therefore be his third at the White House. Rumors had swelled in recent weeks about an impending announcement, with the septuagenarian determined to ride the Republicans’ anticipated success in the Nov. 8 election to regain power. But the “giant wave” predicted with great aplomb by the conservatives has not materialized, far from it.
President Biden’s party secured control of the Senate over the weekend. The Republicans are still hopeful of taking over the House of Representatives from the Democrats, but have had to significantly scale back their ambitions, after dreaming of a supermajority of more than 60 seats.
“This is the third election in a row that Donald Trump has made us lose”
This more than mixed performance of the Republican camp, in particular on the part of candidates dubbed by Donald Trump, has called into question its reputation as kingmakers. Several influential voices in the conservative camp immediately called for a change of guard within the “Grand Old Party”, casting a shadow over its presidential projects. “This is the third election in a row that Donald Trump has made us lose,” Maryland Governor Larry Hogan denounced on CNN on Sunday. “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result,” he continued.
“The ballot was rigged”, “we must organize a new election immediately”, swept Donald Trump on his social network, replaying a well-known partition, to which millions of his supporters still adhere. Because the real estate magnate retains an undeniable popularity with his base, a tide of red caps which continues to flow to his campaign meetings. The polls give him so far still winning a Republican primary.
Donald Trump faces some obstacles
Tuesday’s announcement is also widely seen as a way to pull the rug out from under the feet of his potential Republican rivals, namely Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a new hard-right star, towards whom part of the nebula conservative began to turn.
Another obstacle that could complicate Donald Trump’s ascent to the White House: his numerous legal troubles, which could end up disqualifying him. The former president is the target of several investigations for his role in the attack on the headquarters of Congress on January 6, 2021 or his management of the White House archives. But relying on an “instinct” always put forward, Donald Trump, whose fall has been announced a thousand times, has so far survived all the scandals. As if, by dint of accumulation, they no longer had a hold on him.
The 2024 election could then be a remake of that of 2020, the current Democratic President Joe Biden, having reaffirmed on Wednesday his “intention” to run for a second term. But he was careful to postpone any final decision until next year, the prospect not appealing to all Democrats because of his age (nearly 80) and his unpopularity.