by Julie Steenhuysen and Deena Beasley
CHICAGO (Reuters) – The lifting of health restrictions in China could lead to an explosion in cases and cause the death of more than one million people in 2023, according to new estimates published by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation ( IHME).
According to projections by this institute for public health statistics based in Seattle, Washington, the number of cases of contamination by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in China should peak around April 1, and the death toll is expected to reach 322,000.
About a third of China’s population will have been infected with the virus by then, said IHME director Christopher Murray.
Chinese health authorities have not reported any deaths attributed to COVID-19 since the restrictions were lifted. The current death toll from the epidemic in China is 5,235.
The study, published online by IHME, is based on data from a recent outbreak of COVID-19 due to the Omicron variant that hit Hong Kong.
“China has rarely reported deaths since the outbreak in Wuhan. That’s why we turned to Hong Kong to better determine the case fatality rate,” said Christopher Murray.
Other experts predict that about 60% of the Chinese population will be infected with COVID-19, with an expected peak in January.
(With contributions from Deena Beasley; French version Camille Raynaud)
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