Narendra Modi big favorite in the legislative elections

The world’s largest democratic exercise opens in India; 969 million voters, or more than 10% of the world’s population, are called to the polls between Friday April 19 and Saturday 1er June to elect their 543 deputies to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament, the one which holds the most power, from which the name of the next prime minister will emerge.

Logistics is commensurate with the size of the country; seven phases will be necessary to organize this giant ballot, transport the voting equipment and count the votes. Fifteen million agents are mobilized. Porters began moving the electronic machines at the beginning of the week to the most remote locations.

During these forty-four days, they will have to reach mountain peaks, deserts, tribes, borrow boats, horses, sometimes elephants. Election rules in India stipulate that polling stations should not be more than two kilometers from each habitation. Voters leave with an ink mark on their index finger, a witness to their passage through the voting booth.

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Among them, eighteen million young people can vote for the first time. At the other end of the age pyramid, the electorate includes fourteen million over 85 years old and more than 210,000 centenarians.

Narendra Modi towards a third term?

Narendra Modi has set a very ambitious goal: obtain 400 seats with its allies to achieve the two-thirds majority required to amend the Constitution. In 2019, the opposition won 91 seats against 303 for the BJP and 352 with its allies.

Unlike the two previous elections, the Congress, the main opposition party, managed to convince around thirty political groups to join forces under the acronym INDIA (Indian National Alliance for Inclusive Development).

Will this union be enough to stop Narendra Modi’s race towards a third consecutive term? Doubt is allowed, as the logistical, financial, partisan and charismatic superiority of the outgoing Prime Minister crushes everything like a bulldozer. After ten years in power, Modi’s popularity remains intact, maintained by a media predominantly won over to his cause, which focuses all attention on the prime minister and ignores or belittles his adversaries.

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To weaken the coalition of its rivals, the government dealt it a terrible blow, from the outset, by arresting two of its leaders – Arvind Kejriwal, the head of government of Delhi, and Hermant Soren, the former head of government of Jharkhand (north-east), for alleged corruption cases. The government hopes to distill suspicion into the minds of voters about the probity of these elected officials at a time when it itself is caught up in the scandal of anonymous financing of political parties set up in 2017. It has also frozen the main bank accounts of the Congress in the context of a tax dispute.

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