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250 military aircraft, 10,000 soldiers from 25 countries: With the “Air Defender 23” exercise, the western military alliance is conducting the largest air maneuvers in its history. Last but not least, it is about remedying a serious weakness in the alliance.
Based on the preliminary reports in some media, one gets the impression that the sun will hardly be visible in Europe for two weeks because of the fighter jets. That’s grossly exaggerated. The fact is, however, that civil air traffic will be severely hampered. It also affects many flights in this country. The European air traffic control authority expects a delay of around a thousand hours – per day.
No answer, but signal to Moscow
“Air Defender 23” is not a response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February last year. The exercise has been planned since 2018. But it is a signal to the Russian leadership.
The West wants and needs to prove its deterrence capability. Since Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014, NATO’s original task of repelling a Russian attack on Alliance territory has been reborn.
Because many can understand that, there are few protests against these maneuvers. If so, then they are almost exclusively aimed at disrupting civil air traffic.
Weakness in moving air troops
The major exercise is purely defensive. So no attacks are being rehearsed, for example on the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad – although the Kremlin is stationing more and more rockets there that could also be used to fire tactical nuclear weapons against NATO members.
“Air Defender 23” is mainly about defense exercises in Estonia and Romania and the rapid movement of air troops. Because the military alliance has a double weakness to this day.
It is cumbersome and takes too long to move combat forces across Alliance territory, both from Western to Eastern Europe and, even more so, from North America to Europe. There’s progress, but you’re not there. This is particularly worrying for the eastern NATO countries. Relatively few NATO contingents are still permanently stationed there – possibly not enough to stand up to Russia.
USA remain (still) indispensable
The second problem that the exercise shows, although it does not solve: The “European pillar of NATO” is probably still too weak to defend itself. US engagement remains essential, despite recent increases in defense budgets in many European countries. And that for many years to come. Which is why thanking the United States is part of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s standard repertoire.
In an emergency, the United States must rush to help with weapons and troops on a large scale. Just as they are currently doing in favor of Ukraine. Without the massive contribution from the USA, Western military aid there would still be miserable.
It would be crucial for the war that US forces could arrive immediately if necessary and intervene in the battle. In other words, in an emergency, Europe would not only need military assets, but also the political will in Washington to provide support. As long as someone like Joe Biden is US President, there is no question about it. At least with two of Biden’s conceivable successors – Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis – things would look different. A disturbing thought.