The variant of the corona virus that has emerged in South Africa does not bode well – also for the economy. Because economic outlooks have long been pandemic forecasts, hopes of a quick recovery are fading. Everybody – business leaders as well as consumers – needs strong nerves once again.
That too! As if the past two years of Corona mode hadn’t meant enough deprivation, worry and excitement for us, the world is being subjected to another corona stress test. The new virus variant that has emerged in South Africa, identified by virologists with the cryptic abbreviation B.1.1.529, is sending new, previously unexpected, almost panic-like shock waves – to all parts of the world. Also to us. The health systems in many parts of Germany are already at their limit. Operations that are not absolutely necessary are being postponed, and the Bundeswehr is flying intensive care patients across the country.
Is it justified to worry that the new virus variant is much more dangerous than the Covid mutants that have been circulating so far? If the researchers are to be believed, this cannot yet be said with any certainty. There is a lot to be said for it. Virologists have found that the new South Africa virus shows noticeably strong changes in the spike protein. The experts’ concern: The new Omikron variant could be more dangerous than its predecessors and even undermine the protection provided by previous vaccinations. But none of this is certain. If it goes well, hardly anyone will be talking about B.1.1.529 in a few weeks. Or maybe the opposite is the case.
Even if Biontech assures that its corona vaccine can be adapted to the new variant very quickly if the worst comes to the worst: According to the company, it will take more than three months until the adaptation takes place and the first batches can be vaccinated. Ergo: That will drag on into the coming spring. The nerves of all of us are being put to the test. Yet again.
Not to despair and to remain optimistic seems more important than ever. The pandemic is already weighing like lead on the minds of pretty much everyone. Discussions about mandatory impositions, scarcity of raw materials, inflation and fragile supply chains go on for a long time. Now many people are even more concerned about their health than before. Many of them are also worried about their livelihoods and other fears about the future – especially at Christmas time.
Even with business leaders and economists. Politicians have agreed to extend the established economic aid until the coming spring. But is that enough? And what will become of the potpourri of, sometimes convincing, projects that the future traffic light government formulated in its coalition agreement presented a few days ago? The financing of the many projects for economic recovery, climate change and social justice have so far been hardly convincing. What if the world – including ours – slips into lockdown one more time? Sure: the new federal government will probably set an example and want to keep some election promises. But the political renovation work then threatens to shrink to waste. When the globe is thrown into a state of emergency, other issues arise.
Confidence is important!
At the end of the week there was a little foretaste of what could come. With the exception of stay-at-home stocks and papers from vaccine manufacturers, stock market prices plummeted around the world. For many investors it was a black Friday. That it fell on the “Black Friday” proclaimed by retailers for shopping ecstasy – the irony of history. Economic researchers will not have come to shop anyway. Your economic forecasts, which are routinely scheduled for the coming days, must be adapted to the new corona risks. So far, the economic hope curves for the coming year have been pointing more or less strongly upwards. The graphics will now have to be redrawn and flattened. Economic outlooks have long since become pandemic forecasts. If the corona risks increase, the hope of a rapid economic recovery diminishes.
Still, moping is no use. Confidence is required, also in the business world. Three-year plans and Excel charts with annual projections that have been used up to now are a thing of the past. Shortly after the first Corona wave last year, the economist and social scientist Klaus Schweinsberg was not only promoting the acquisition of “uncertainty competence” among company managers. In times when nothing can be planned, you just have to design and react at short notice. Could come like this. It might sound banal: But strong nerves and optimism help.