Political upheavals in Paris: French President Macron reacts to the results of the European elections and announces early elections. What is the situation regarding power – and majorities in the French parliament? Maps and infographics at a glance.
The 2024 European elections have dramatic consequences in France: President Emmanuel Macron reacts to his party’s weak result and the further strengthening of the French right with a surprising move and calls parliamentary elections at short notice.
In two rounds of voting on June 30 and July 7, the French will decide on the balance of power and majority in the National Assembly in Paris. Usually, only a very small number of the 577 seats in the National Assembly are awarded in the first round. The first round is therefore usually just the beginning. The decision is made in the second round.
The first forecasts (exit polls) will be published on both election days at 8 p.m., and it is expected that at least the rough number of seats won will be published in a range. It should be noted that parties do not have to belong to a single coalition, but can assign their candidates to different coalitions (so-called “nuances”) at constituency level. Parties can therefore formally be represented in several coalitions. The French Ministry of the Interior will provide official data after the votes have been counted.
The new elections scheduled at short notice are throwing political life in France into turmoil: Macron is apparently hoping to gain stronger support from the move: after the crushing defeat of his center camp in the European elections, however, the French right could also gain influence in the future. The latest polls so far show the right-wing populists of the “Rassemblement National” (RN, National Rally Movement) far ahead in France. Macron’s “Ensemble” alliance would therefore only be the third strongest force in the parliamentary elections.
France’s challenges require clarity and the French deserve respect, Macron explained his decision on the evening of the European elections. “So at the end of this day I cannot pretend that nothing has happened,” he said, referring to the results of the European elections and his decision to call new elections to the National Assembly.I trust in the ability of the French electorate to make the best choice for themselves and for future generations.”
Macron’s “Renaissance” party suffered a heavy defeat in the European elections on June 9. As part of the centrist alliance “Besoin d’Europe” (BE) – consisting of Renaissance, the “Ensemble” parties and the Union of Democrats (UDI, “Union des démocrates et indépendants” – he only achieved 14.6 percent of the votes with BE.
That is not even half as many votes as the right-wing populists from the RN, who were able to collect 31.5 percent in the European elections in France. Behind Macron at the beginning of June were the French Socialists, who came in just behind the presidential camp with 13.8 percent.
In the vast majority of French regions, the right was able to secure election victory: the map of France with the results of the European elections in the regions shines deep blue.
There is not much time left until June 30. Macron’s decision, which he says is his responsibility as President Article 12 The right to vote, which is guaranteed by the French Constitution, catapults the parties into a kind of lightning election campaign immediately after the European elections, which this time, however, is not about faraway Brussels, but specifically about the political direction of France.
RN parliamentary group leader Marine Le Pen, who wants to run again as a presidential candidate in 2027, looks She said she was very confident about the unexpectedly scheduled new elections. “We are ready to assume government responsibility,” she said.
The far-right party “Reconquête” with Le Pen’s niece Marion Maréchal as its leading candidate has already shown itself open to a coalition – as has the head of France’s conservatives, Eric Ciotti.
The new flexibility of the conservative camp creates new realities for Macron: With his coalition signals, Ciotti questioned a decades-long consensus that cooperation with the RN is taboo – and thereby openly opposing large parts of his party Les Republicans.
The upcoming elections in France are attracting attention beyond the country’s borders. It is still unclear how a possible election victory for right-wing populists will affect the political direction of Europe’s second-strongest economic power.
Previous statements by leading RN representatives do not suggest a sudden commitment to the European unification process. The much-vaunted Franco-German engine within the EU could temporarily falter.
Review: Parliamentary elections 2022
In the recent parliamentary elections in 2022, Macron’s party Renaissance (RE, formerly “La République en Marche”) ran under the umbrella of the ensemble coalition ENS, as in the European elections. The abbreviation ENS stands for “Ensemble pour la majorité présidentielle” (roughly: Alliance of the Presidential Majority) and included not only liberal centrist parties but also centre-left and centre-right parties.
In 2022, Macron’s centralist alliance was still neck and neck with the left-wing NUPES list (“Nouvelle union populaire écologique et sociale”, roughly: New Ecological and Social Popular Union), at least in the first round of voting.
The NUPES alliance was a serious challenger for Macron at the time: the social-ecological party group was able to rely on a broad base, which included the Socialist Party and the French Communist Party, as well as the French Greens and the left-populist party “La France insoumise” (Unyielding France).
In the 2022 presidential election, the then NUPES top candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon narrowly missed out on a place in the runoff. In the second round, Macron then prevailed against the right-wing populist candidate Marine Le Pen.
Two years later, the situation looks different: France’s right-wing parties are feeling the wind in their sails after the European elections. Le Pen welcomed Macron’s announcement of new elections and spoke of a “courageous decision” and, in view of the new openness of the conservatives, of Ciotti’s “sense of responsibility”.
However, the right-wing parties want to enter the parliamentary elections under the leadership of the MEP Jordan Bardella who had already been his party’s top candidate in the EU elections. Bardella is “our candidate for Matignon,” RN party vice-chairman Sébastien Chenu told radio station RTL. Hôtel Matignon is the official residence of the French Prime Minister in Paris.
Will there be “cohabitation” in Paris?
It is still unclear whether the European upward trend of right-wing populists will continue within France: If the RN actually secures a government majority, there could be “cohabitation” in France for the first time in 22 years.
The term refers to the case where the president and the strongest political group in parliament belong to different political camps and the president does not have a majority of his own. This has happened three times so far, most recently from 1997 to 2002 with the conservative president Jacques Chirac and the socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin.
Macron’s forced blitz election campaign is also hitting the government camp. The centrist coalition, which lost its absolute majority in the 2022 parliamentary election just two years ago, switched to election campaign mode the morning after parliament was dissolved.
Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, who is also the head of Macron’s Renaissance party, called for the “mobilization of all republican forces.” He plans to continue to hold his ministerial office despite organizing the election campaign.
France’s Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said the upcoming election had historic significance following the success of the right-wing populists in the EU elections. It was the election that would have the “most serious consequences in the history of the Fifth Republic”. The vote would decide “what will become of the French nation in the coming years and decades”.
Green-left “popular front” against Macron
The left-wing parties in France want to run as an alliance in the new elections, which have been scheduled at short notice. On the day of Macron’s announcement, the Left Party, Socialists, Communists and Greens agreed in principle to form a joint movement called the “Front Populaire” (Popular Front).
The hastily forged alliance agreed to field only one joint candidate in each of the 577 constituencies. “We want a program of social and ecological change to build an alternative to Emmanuel Macron and to combat the racist project of the extreme right.”
But the left-wing alliance is far from being a done deal. The left-wing parties did run together in the last parliamentary elections two years ago and formed a joint parliamentary group. But the alliance effectively collapsed in the dispute over the stance on the Gaza war. And while two years ago the Left Party and its leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon were the strongest and driving partner, the Socialists, who have regained strength in the European elections, are now claiming the right to lead the party with their candidate who came in third place. Raphael Glucksmann a leadership role.
577 constituencies, 577 seats
The new alliance has been under pressure from the start. There is not much time left for the Greens and the Left to agree on a common line before the election on June 30th. The French parliament is made up of two chambers: the Senate and the National Assembly, although the announced new elections only affect the National Assembly. The people’s representation comprises 577 seats. Elections are held in two rounds in the corresponding number of constituencies according to the French majority voting system.
Candidates who achieve an absolute majority in the first round – i.e. more than 50 percent of the votes cast – do not have to go to the runoff election – provided they receive more than a quarter of the votes in their constituency in the first round.
In constituencies where none of the candidates crosses this threshold, the second round of voting takes place one week later: Here, the two best-placed candidates from the first round compete against all those constituency candidates who received more than one eighth of the votes in the first round.
As a rule, the parties agree on joint candidates before the second round of voting, meaning that usually no more than three candidates run in each constituency. The seat is won by the person who receives the most votes. The new members of the French National Assembly are therefore not expected to be decided until the evening of July 7.