The economy of the euro zone is not showing any signs of “stagnation” today, despite the already visible effects of the war in Ukraine on the old continent, said Monday the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine The guard.
“We are not currently seeing any elements of stagnation” in the economy of the euro zone, said the leader during a question-and-answer session at the Institut Montaigne in Paris.
“Given the recovery that was underway, we do not see a stagnation of the economy on the horizon of 2022, nor 2023, nor 2024”, continued Ms. Lagarde, in response to a question relating to fears of “stagflation when sluggish growth is accompanied by high inflation.
Soaring commodity prices and likely severe disruptions to supply chains due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine are raising fears of a global economic slowdown, just as the world emerged from two years of pandemic.
Very exposed to the conflict, the euro zone could in particular see its growth cut by 1.4 points over one year, due to the war in Ukraine, anticipated Thursday the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The ECB for its part revised its growth forecast in the euro zone for 2022 downwards in March, to 3.7%.
Up to 130 € premium at the opening thanks to our online banking comparison
In a so-called “severe” forecast scenario, if the war is prolonged and marked by heavy repercussions on energy supplies, for example, growth will fall to 2.3% this year as well as in 2023, and to 1.9% in 2024, predicts the ECB.
Regarding inflation, the Frankfurt institution anticipates 5.1% this year, a level which could rise to 7.1% also in a so-called “severe” scenario of the conflict.
But this figure would fall to 2.7% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024, according to ECB forecasts.