Even two months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it doesn’t look like the war will end any time soon. Attempts at mediation by Macron, Erdogan and Guterres are ignored in the Kremlin. China, on the other hand, has great influence on Putin. But there are good reasons why it’s holding back.
It’s hard to get hold of the Russian President. This is not only due to Vladimir Putin’s fondness for the now famous six-meter-long table, but also to the fact that he is enraptured in the Kremlin, pursuing his historic mission of a Greater Russia. Or, according to the other interpretation, wants to extinguish every spark of freedom at home before there are mass protests in Moscow like in Minsk or on the Maidan in Kyiv. He’s hard to talk to because the bombs, explosions, and shots at civilians drown out everything else. Nevertheless, his message is unmistakable: Russia is still fighting in Ukraine, negotiations can be forgotten for the time being.
At least Western representatives have little to report. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres did not achieve anything significant during his visit to Moscow. French President Emmanuel Macron calls from time to time, but his words die out. Warnings, concerns and demands from Berlin, London and Washington no longer seem to be able to penetrate the Kremlin walls. That might be different if they were held in Chinese. Because as cold as Putin is towards Scholz, Johnson and Macron, he blossoms when China’s President Xi Jinping gets in touch.
The more relations with Germany, the EU and the US cooled down in recent years, the more Putin discovered his heart for China. The climax came three weeks before the Ukraine attack: Putin visited President Xi in Beijing and attended the opening of the Olympic Games, while Western leaders boycotted the celebration over human rights violations in the country. The two dictators ensnared each other softly and silkily: they promised each other “boundless friendship”. Putin enthused: The mutual relations are “unprecedented” and have an “unprecedented character”. Xi hailed him with a joint statement saying NATO must respect the sovereignty and security of other countries.
What can China do?
Even in the case of Ukraine, Russia did not comply with what Russia demanded from the West. Two months and an embarrassing start to the war later, trench warfare has begun in the Donbass. The US, Europeans and, with increasing determination, Germany are supplying more and more arms to the country. Putin should fail with his war, anything else would be a catastrophe for the security of Europe. But an end to the fighting is not in sight. Will it be weeks? Months? Years? And what if everything escalates? Will World War III come then? With such prospects, the question arises as to whether China could use its influence to persuade Putin to engage in serious negotiations.
Because China also has an interest in peace. China could have done without the worldwide turmoil, economically and politically. “But the question is always: peace on what terms?” China expert Tim Rühlig from the German Society for Foreign Relations told ntv.de. He relegates talk of “boundless friendship” to the realm of poetry. China would like it if Russia were weakened. Because then it would be even more dependent on support from China. “This would deepen the common alliance with the USA and you would have a partner that you could control well.”
Hostility towards the Americans is what makes the declarations of friendship between Beijing and Moscow so passionate. It is not only about economic supremacy and geopolitics, but also about the question of whether democracies or dictatorships are more successful. According to Rühlig, China is also looking at the war in the Far West from this vantage point. Ukraine is pro-democracy. “The message ‘A democratic movement will ultimately prevail against massive military violence’ is not in China’s interests.” A weakening of Ukraine in this sense, on the other hand, does.
On the one hand on the other hand
So China is caught in a constant one-sidedness. In an interview with ntv.de, the China expert Nadine Godehardt from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik spoke of a “rocking course” that would lead to pro-Russian neutrality. On the one hand, the war is not in China’s interest at all. The corona outbreaks in the country have already occupied the country enough. In addition, this year is the 20th party congress of the Communist Party, at which Xi Jinping wants to have another term confirmed. “It is incredibly important for the internal legitimacy of the party and Xi that this event is not disrupted,” she said. But since it is indirectly against the USA, on the other hand, you are more on the side of Russia. For this, China now has to grapple with the international effects of the war on the world economy and the financial system.
Such turbulence is not welcome. In addition, the EU and the USA are China’s most important trading partners and are now looking at the close ties with China with even greater concern. Doesn’t that create a dangerous dependency? This leads to insecurity and jeopardizes prosperity. The fact that it is increasing is an important pillar on which the rule of Xi and his family is based. It was only during the week that the President is said to have instructed officials to ensure stronger economic growth. But in turn Russia should help, for example by supplying cheap gas. The Chinese want to import more of this in order to become independent of liquid gas supplies, for example from Australia. “But it is at least as important that China needs access to technologies from the West and is quite afraid that the sanctions will be extended to Chinese companies,” says Rühlig. On the one hand on the other hand.
Wouldn’t that be good prerequisites for an intermediary role? Rühlig doesn’t see it that way. “China is not an independent broker and in that sense cannot assume the role of an intermediary.” Apparently, the country is not even looking for this role. “China has become a self-confident great power that defends its own interests with all methods.” However, according to the expert, it makes sense to coordinate mediation with China, since Russia is “hanging more and more on China’s drip.” “At the same time, however, it will be ensured that Russia comes out relatively face-saving.” As a result, China is currently behaving rather passively. And let Putin do it.