The Union is campaigning on the backs of Ukrainian refugees. This could backfire dramatically. And it ignores a key point: without the arms deliveries to Ukraine, there would be many more refugees in Germany.
The result of the European elections is still fresh in the minds of the CDU in East Germany. There is no other explanation for the move by Brandenburg’s Interior Minister Michael Stübgen.
It is incompatible “to talk about supporting Ukraine as best as possible and, in the same breath, to support deserting Ukrainians,” said the CDU politician. The Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann had already struck the same note. It must be “made clear that people who evade conscription will no longer be paid citizen’s allowance”. This Wednesday, Herrmann and Stübgen’s proposal is to be discussed at the Interior Ministers’ Conference.
Now, one may be of the opinion that Ukrainians of military age should defend their country. But not every private opinion can be turned into law. Forcing Ukrainians in Germany to do military service in their homeland by withdrawing their basic social security is a bold move: legally, it would probably be untenable to exclude a certain age group from citizen’s income. The only way to implement this idea would be to require Ukrainians in Germany to have a valid passport: since April, Ukraine has stopped issuing passports to men between the ages of 18 and 60 living abroad. But that would at least seem like trickery.
Regardless of its feasibility, the idea is highly problematic. A key finding of populism research still seems to have not gotten around: anyone who adopts the narrative of right-wing populists only strengthens them – especially if their initiative is not feasible. In other words: The Union’s move could backfire dramatically.
It is election campaign
The Union is clearly trying to exploit resentment against Ukraine without abandoning its general policy on Ukraine. 26 percent of Union supporters believe that Ukraine is receiving too much support from Germany, more than from the governing parties. In East Germany as a whole, 40 percent say this, and in West Germany, 29 percent. Elections will be held in three East German states in September, including Brandenburg.
However, a demand that also comes from the Union and is raised by the FDP would at least be feasible: not to give Ukrainian war refugees a citizen’s allowance, but rather support under the Asylum Seekers’ Benefits Act. There are understandable arguments for this. However, it is forgotten that the Ukrainians were not included in the citizen’s allowance system two years ago out of mercy. The reasons at the time were serious: fear of a massive overload of the asylum system. Instead, municipalities and states should be relieved of the burden. Because they pay the benefits under the Asylum Seekers’ Benefits Act. The federal government, on the other hand, covers the costs of the citizen’s allowance. This should also enable faster integration into the labor market.
Fewer weapons means more refugees
The latter only worked to a limited extent, which is probably not only due to the citizen’s allowance, but also to the hurdles that German bureaucracy still puts in the way of Ukrainians.
Thorsten Frei, parliamentary manager of the Union faction in the Bundestag, has rightly observed that the number of Ukrainian women working in Germany is “noticeably low” compared to other countries. But this is probably more due to Germany than to Ukrainian women. Nevertheless, Frei is also primarily playing on resentment: “While everything is at stake for Kiev in the face of the brutal Russian attack, many able-bodied Ukrainians in this country are ducking away.” Not a word about the high language barriers for many jobs, not a word about the strict recognition rules for foreign professional qualifications.
The Union did a lot of things right after the Russian attack on Ukraine. Three months before the state elections in East Germany, it is evidently afraid of its own courage. The combination of its yes to military support for Ukraine and a deterrent course against Ukrainian refugees is implausible – and not worthy of the Union.
It should stop telling a fictitious target group what they think they want to hear. Instead, it should start to make people aware of another fact: many more refugees will come to Germany from Ukraine if CDU politicians like Saxony’s Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer have their way. Government statement said a few days ago that we need to discuss “whether it is really right that Germany has become such a party to the war.” Become a party to the war? Anyone who accepts Putin’s narrative should not be surprised if the AfD benefits in the end.