No respite for the Stock Exchange, which remains open during the Assumption!

August 15 is a public holiday for the Assumption, but the markets remain open. The program is poorly provided on the economic level, punctuated by a few American and Chinese statistics. Nothing to report, however, on the business side during this summer break.

In the United States, the first American statistics of the day, the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Surveyis expected at 2:30 p.m.. The index, also called “Empire State”, which measures activity in the “Big Apple” region, should remain in positive territory (synonymous with expansion), at 5 points. Activity had already increased unexpectedly in July, for the first time in three months, to 11.1 points. While supply constraints had eased, surging inflation and higher borrowing costs had raised concerns about the resilience of demand and the possibility of a recession. At 16, NAHB Home Developer Confidence Index is expected to be stable at 55 points for the same month.

Towards a rebound in Chinese activity

In China, we wait before the opening of the European session the evolution of industrial production and retail sales in July. The two indicators should progress respectively by 4.3% (3.9% in June) and 5% (3.1%) over one year. The momentum of June, which had benefited from the rebound in activity and consumption after the end of the confinements, is therefore likely to continue. However, the emergence of new sources of Covid contamination (in the tourist city of Hainan in particular) and the decline in real estate investment are jeopardizing the sustainability of the Chinese rebound. Moreover, the unemployment rate remains relatively high and weighs on demand.