There is no way back
Trump’s primary election triumph is also a cry for help
A comment from Roland Peters
March 6, 2024, 8:39 a.m
After Super Tuesday it is clear: Former President Trump can calmly prepare his campaign of revenge. That’s not necessarily a sign of his strength. But the weakness of others.
Basically, the supporters of the two major parties in the USA, their factions and subgroups want the same thing: that all the promises about social advancement are fulfilled or at least a lifestyle according to individual ideas is made possible. Circumstances determine which of them chooses which means to an end. For the Republicans it is once again Donald Trump.
This vote from the West to the East Coast is a cry for help. For many people, especially those in the lower income bracket, life resembles an economic rat race. The differences to their viewers in the higher spheres have become abundantly clear since the Corona crisis. Even richer super-rich, excess profits, but stable real wages at best. The Republicans’ decision is a rejection of the party’s past. And a cry for help from someone who will bring tangible results in your wallet.
Triumph on Super Tuesday in 14 of 15 states, the climax of the primaries, is therefore not necessarily a sign of one’s own strength. Yes, the ex-president has his own party under control; at least since the telephone showdown over the blocked Ukraine aid, it has become clear again who is in charge among the conservatives. But it is primarily the weakness of the others that manifests itself in the votes for him.
In addition, Trump had the advantage of running as someone who had a past in the White House: He didn’t have to prove himself again to the Republicans. With these results, there is no turning back – until the presidential candidacy. However, Nikki Haley, the only remaining competitor, ran slowly but surely against the MAGA wall that began in 2016 and was getting thicker. Of the 15 states, small Vermont took it on Tuesday. So far, she has only won a fraction of the more than 1,000 delegates needed to run for president. Trump’s delegate count, on the other hand, is way up there.
Trump is the liberal
The combination of election results and polls shows a changing political landscape. In America’s two-party system, Republicans are overwhelmingly not incorrigible racists, idiots or crackpots just because they voted for Trump. As strange as it may sound in Europe, for the core of his voters he is not an extremist, but a “liberal” who has the workers and the little people down there in mind. They want stable health care, which is why Trump regularly says he will not touch existing social programs. He is also flexible when it comes to abortions – every state should do what it wants instead of mandating it nationwide.
Haley, on the other hand, represents the former Republican Party of free trade and globalization, the narrow government, expensive wars abroad, banned abortions, lost jobs and the decline of American industry. Haley was one of those up there in this primary, as much as she emphasized her upward mobility as the child of an immigrant family. She claimed the US needed “a new generation of leaders” like her. The majority of Republicans saw it differently.
Many votes for Haley came from independents, suburban voters in general, and women in particular, who are repulsed by Trump’s now unbridled rhetoric. When in doubt, the others feel closer to the ex-president. Also because they hope that it could offer an upward exit. Just like in his first term in office: real wages rose noticeably over the years, and jobs in the manufacturing industry were added for the first time since 2008, for workers without an academic qualification. That’s what matters to his base.
Lack of money for distant wars
Trump’s hard-core voter core continues to be predominantly white, working-class, people without a college education and those living outside of big cities. They demand their share of the huge cake. Eight years ago they voted for Trump out of anger over the radically broken promise that globalization and the free, borderless international market would bring them prosperity.
The loss of purchasing power due to inflation during Biden’s years in office has cost the Democrats a lot of trust; despite excellent job data and slightly increasing real wages. The suburban Republicans who voted for Haley will have to ask themselves in November whether they should just stay home, swallow their disgust and vote for Trump, or even vote against him. Young voters in particular are skeptical: For first-time voters, for example, things tended to improve economically under Trump when they were young, but since Corona it has been a rollercoaster. They fear for the promise of advancement opportunities to anyone who tries hard enough.
This applies not only to workers, but also to students and academics who are struggling with their student loans. Trump now has more support among blacks in polls than any Republican before him; up to 20 percent almost equally across all educational levels would vote for him. Their households are by far the lowest-income in the country. Parents hardly have any money to finance their children’s studies themselves. They are not making any progress and are abandoning Biden.
Trump’s rejection of the Ukraine war is also a channeled dissatisfaction with such problems: If we don’t have enough money, why are we wasting it on distant wars? Like Biden does and Haley would continue? Republicans are divided between top and bottom. There are those who no longer need promises of advancement. But there are also more numerous others. And many of them vote for Trump.