Omicron: does the presidential deadline weigh on the health choices of Emmanuel Macron?

A President forced to act in the face of the health crisis, but also a potential candidate for re-election in a few weeks. With what cap will Emmanuel Macron arbitrate the Health Defense Council which is being held this Monday, supposed to lead to new instructions to contain the Covid-19 epidemic? Will his very probable situation as a future presidential candidate weigh in his choices as President of the Republic?

If new restrictions will be adopted and announced, they should be less onerous and impactful for the French than expected. In recent hours, as the Omicron variant continues its breakthrough, rumors of a New Year’s Eve under curfew have been rife. But this track seems to be ruled out. Likewise, there is no question of touching the start of the school year. According to information from LCI, the executive should decide to shorten the time for injecting the booster dose, to reduce the duration of isolation for vaccinated contact cases, to establish gauges for certain major sporting and cultural events or further strengthen teleworking.

Apart from the introduction of the vaccination pass, these measures seem rather “soft” at a time when curfews and confinements are again in force in some of our European neighbors. Does this French exception have to do with the upcoming elections, as some political opponents suggest?

It is clear that the Head of State does not deviate from the line adopted for several months already: bet everything on vaccination and not put a stop to the country’s economy. This is the reason why the executive decided to accelerate the adoption of the vaccine pass, and to reduce the duration of isolation of vaccinated contact cases of a person positive for the Omicron variant, from 17 to 7 days. “It is thanks to the vaccination, the health pass, the barrier gestures that we will be able to continue living, not restricting other freedoms and not closing down activities”, declared Emmanuel Macron during a speech delivered on November 9.

In early 2021, the head of state had also taken a similar option, refusing to confine the country when many European neighbors adopted this measure. France had finally chosen to bring forward the spring school holidays to face the wave, but had thus limited the impact on the economy and the daily life of the French.

The main indicator that worries the government, the one that could make it take further restrictive measures, is hospital pressure. “We are looking at the situation at the hospital”, confirmed an adviser to the executive at LCI last week. “We are adapting to the dangerousness and the fulgurance of the variant, as long as we can avoid taking restrictive and custodial measures, we do it.” This Monday, December 27, the hospital pressure is 64%, and 16,365 people are hospitalized, including 3,300 in critical care.

At the moment, the French also approve of the government measures and the way in which Emmanuel Macron managed the health crisis. According to an Odoxa poll for Le Figaro published on December 23, 66% of French people are even in favor of the introduction of the vaccine pass.

According to our monthly Harris Interactive / Euros Agency barometer for LCI, Emmanuel Macron had the confidence of 51% of the French in December (stable), Jean Castex 46% (-1) and Oliver Véran 44% (+3).

In addition, in all the polls carried out within four months of the presidential election, if second places are contested, Emmanuel Macron always leads the first round. Whoever his opponent, he would also win in the second. Provided, by then, not to let the health situation worsen by adopting measures that would be considered too lax. A balancing act that leaves little room for maneuver for the outgoing president.