The Institut Pasteur has just published all the possible scenarios on the impact of the Omicron variant on the hospital system. From intermediate restrictions, to confinement, anything is possible
Omicron going to overflow hospitals? This Wednesday, December 29, the Pasteur Institute published scenarios in order to anticipate the surge of this variant in France, while more than 200,000 new contaminations were recorded on Wednesday, December 28. These new models, which the government became aware of on Monday, December 27, were carefully examined before the new restrictions were announced on the same day.
As scientific knowledge of this variant progresses, the research institute has however taken into account “the significant uncertainties concerning the severity and the advantage of transmission of the Omicron variant over the Delta variant”.
1.the moderate scenario: the most probable
Variant-related infections may be absorbed into the hospital system. This is the most likely scenario, provided the early trends about the contagiousness and severity of Omicron are confirmed. Clinical observations from South Africa and Scotland show that Omicron has an increased ‘transmission advantage’ of 67% to 84%, compared to Delta,
On the other hand, it is likely that the variant is much less severe. The Institut Pasteur retains the intermediate hypothesis, with a severity equivalent to the historical virus, that is, 54% less than the Delta. Under these conditions, “the hospital peak could reach 2,700 daily hospitalizations without adjustment of behavior”, indicates the Pasteur Institute. A scenario already known in November 2020 during the 2nd wave, when the peak had reached 2,900 daily admissions.
In this most likely scenario, the “peak would pass to 1,900 and 1,400 daily hospitalizations, if the French reduced their contacts by 10% and 20%, respectively”. Behaviors that would stabilize this curve, which, according to the latest figures from “Covid Tracker”, is already 1,300 daily hospitalizations. But also measures, such as those taken by the government such as the installation of gauges, the obligation to remain seated in bars or even the strengthening of teleworking.
The evolution of hospital admissions since the start of the pandemic.
Source: Covid Tracker.
Faced with the Omicron variant, antigenic tests less effective?
” Test yourself ! This is the leitmotif of the authorities in this period of family and friendly gathering. Faced with difficult access in pharmacies, self-tests, capable of delivering a diagnosis in a few minutes, are now available in supermarkets. But, are they really relevant to the Omicron variant?
Another positive impact in this scenario, the acceleration of the vaccination rate. According to the Pasteur Institute, the injection of 1.2 million doses per day would reduce the size of the peak by 17%. France is far from it, according to the latest data available, during Christmas week, the daily average was 386,000 booster injections.
2. The worst-case scenario: curfew and confinement
This is the worst case scenario: combine a severity of Omicron similar to the Alpha variant (33% less than the Delta) and high transmissibility. The researchers’ models estimate that there could be 7,000 to 10,000 daily admissions to hospitals despite a 20% reduction in contacts. There, “intermediate measures” like the one we know would no longer suffice. There should be curfews, or even new confinement.