The federal scientific task force estimates that the Omikron wave is likely to peak in January. What that means for Switzerland, says Tanja Stadler, President of the Task Force, in an interview.
SRF: Are we in the middle of the contamination of the Swiss population?
Tanja Stadler: We are in the middle of the Omikron wave. The number of infections is rising sharply and we anticipate that many people in Switzerland will be infected.
So is that now the contamination?
Very many of those who are not boosted or vaccinated will gain immunity from infection with Omicron.
They expect this wave to peak in about two weeks – with 10 to 30 percent of the population infected within a week. Specifically: 1 to 2.5 million infected people!
Indeed, there are a great many infections. This will test both our health system and our society. But you have to remember that 3.5 to 5 percent of the population were infected last week. So we are on the way there.
You also said that during this one week high levels are expected in the hospitals, up to 300 additional intensive care patients and several thousand hospital admissions. Can our health system handle this?
These are the top estimates. The number of intensive care patients can be between 80 and 300 per week. 80 is a number we’ve done many times before – 300 gets more difficult. But you also have to say: The intensive care number is relatively low compared to the hospital admissions, because the unvaccinated come to the intensive care units – and we don’t have that many unvaccinated anymore.
If you look at Omikron, also in other countries, then it’s clear: It’s not just a harmless cold.
As for hospital admissions: That could be 1,000, but it could also be 10,000. That depends on how well the vaccination still protects the double vaccinated – 90 percent or 85 percent? And accordingly there are also large variances that we have to adjust to.
Despite the sharp increase in the number of infections: The number of hospitalizations and intensive care patients is falling. You are now saying it will “explode” in the next few weeks. Why do you think that?
If you look at Omikron, also in other countries, then it’s clear: It’s not just a harmless cold. People also get seriously ill from Omicron. Other countries are a bit ahead of us, in London and New York hospitalizations are already rising sharply. And: In Switzerland, too, the number of cases fell slightly before Christmas, but you could already see that Omikron had spread strongly in this sinking delta wave, and accordingly the numbers exploded in January.
Everyone who has not yet been in contact with Omikron and has not been boosted will still be infected, we will have more infections.
We are now seeing the same thing in the hospitals: Delta admissions are declining, but the Omikron cases are spreading underneath. And as soon as Omikron is dominant in hospital admissions, we expect the numbers to go up sharply.
Let us summarize: The omicron wave will rush over us, the burden on the health system will be very great in the short term. And then?
Then we assume that the numbers will go down again. Then we’ll all make more contacts again, we’re looking forward to that too. That also means: everyone who has not yet been in contact with Omikron and has not been boosted will still be infected, we will have more infections. It is not yet possible to estimate whether this will result in another small wave. But then spring comes and helps us to slow down the infections a little, and towards summer we will have it a little easier – unless another variant comes.
And then will the pandemic end?
Then we have to be vigilant and collect data on how good immunity is in the Swiss population so that we can prepare in the autumn. Do you need booster vaccinations? What do we have to do to shape the next winter in such a way that there are no more capacity bottlenecks in the healthcare system?
The interview was conducted by Urs Leuthard.