Only area codes are a walk in the park
Trump also has weak points – one in particular
By Roland Peters, New York
February 28, 2024, 8:44 a.m
Former President Trump’s triumph in the primaries continues – no one expected anything different. The Republican is flexing his muscles in all directions. And yet he could still have problems.
It’s only the end of February, but its dominance is overwhelming. Donald Trump won the first US Republican primaries by a wide margin. Now the state of Michigan has also decided in favor of the ex-president, where the heart of the US auto industry beats in and around Detroit. Around 68 percent of the votes cast went to him, around 26 percent to Nikki Haley. “November 5th can’t come fast enough,” Trump said afterwards about the presidential election: “We will win convincingly, like no one has ever experienced.”
At the weekend he also won in Haley’s home state of South Carolina by more than 30 percentage points. She is his only remaining competitor for the presidential nomination. Her chances are so bad that experts are wondering why she hasn’t given up long ago. On Saturday, the Republicans in Michigan will nominate the remaining electors at a party conference – but Trump is likely to be clearly ahead there too. In the primaries, the states send their electors based on the results of the candidates, who then use their votes to officially nominate the candidate at the national party conference in July.
Trump boasts of his victories at every opportunity, presents himself as a candidate and is demanding that the party end the primaries early. But no matter how dominant the ex-president is in his duel with Haley, there are warning signs hidden in the results. If, as in Michigan, more than a quarter choose the person who is almost certainly not the candidate, this also signals dissatisfaction. This is a problem for Trump. Because in the election on November 5th, every vote will count in the contested swing states. It can be a problem if a candidate cannot unite the entire party behind them.
Rebellious conservatives
There are certainly groups among Republican voters who have had enough of Trump. There are the so-called “Never Trumpers”, i.e. those who reject Trump as the leading figure of the party. Most of them are, so to speak, conservatives: They are guided by values and moral guidelines that Trump and his “Make America Great Again” aka MAGA party wing have thrown into the wind.
These voters currently tend to vote for Haley or not at all. They could be missing from Trump in November; some may simply stay at home or, in extreme cases, even opt for another option such as “No Labels”. In post-election polls in South Carolina, 20 percent of Republicans said they would not vote for Trump in November if he became the nominee.
Most of Haley’s voters know that Trump’s claims that Democrat Joe Biden cheated him out of victory in the 2020 presidential election are nothing but lies. Some say Trump would be unfit to be president if he is convicted in any of his four criminal trials.
The ex-president’s legal problems are a clear disadvantage for him. Just over half of Republican voters told Reuters/Ipsos in mid-February that they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted, and 25 percent said they were not sure. If he has to go to prison, 58 percent want to deny him their vote. No wonder Trump is trying to use all legal means to delay the court hearings.
Missing women
The other major critical group is women. Haley knows that female voters are much more skeptical of Trump than male voters. This is also why she focuses some of her efforts on them. If they think so, Trump would have little chance against Biden in November: 58 percent of all voters support Biden, significantly more than the electorate as a whole. When Biden won the 2020 election, 55 percent of women chose him and 44 percent chose Trump.
This also, but not only, has to do with the end of nationwide abortion rights. Trump claims to have brought this about by nominating conservative judges to the Supreme Court. The issue primarily mobilizes Democrats, but also many women who are close to the Republicans. Meanwhile, the ex-president is trying to win over women in the suburbs with a fear campaign about immigrants coming into the country via the southern border with Mexico. There, Biden was ahead in crucial states.
The survey results on Trump’s support have always had to be viewed with great caution; he usually did better in the elections than predicted. In the previous primaries, the survey results are very close to the results. But in the end, skeptical Republicans also have to decide – and despite their criticism, some consider Trump to be the lesser evil than Biden.
But first there’s “Super Tuesday” next Tuesday: It’s about almost everything, 15 states will decide on their favorite. After that, Trump’s candidacy for November 5th will most likely be just a formality.