But to start, an anecdote all the same. To prepare my column each morning, I will sometimes look at what happened exactly a year before. In this case, it is 1er April 2021, so as much to say that the news was swarming with more or less successful fish. If you have a good memory, you might remember Volkswagen’s big misfire with Voltswagen. But the search engine quickly took me to the archives of the daily Le Monde, very well referenced on Goofy when looking for past dates. And then, what do I come across? An article explaining that Moscow is carrying out exercises on the Ukrainian border and that “it poses no threat to anyone“, according to a spokesman for the Kremlin responding to Western fears. I confess a little shamefully not being interested in what was happening in the East.it poses no threat to anyone” in the mouth of the Russian executive a year ago to the day.
Moreover, Vladimir Putin proved again yesterday his taste for duplicity. After assuring certain senior European leaders that they could pay their gas bills in euros, he published texts imposing the payment of bills in rubles from this 1er April. This is also what accentuated the slide into the red of European equity markets. Then the Russian president hinted that deliveries will continue. Vladimir Putin knows that he has the power to drive his European neighbors crazy because of their dependence on fossil fuels supplied by his country. He uses it a lot these days. But it’s a double-edged sword, as we know: by reducing European dependence, it shoots itself in the foot for future exports.
The markets became more cautious yesterday at these announcements, which wiped out the positive impact of the decline in oil prices after the United States announced its intention to flood the oil market with a significant part of its strategic reserves. On the stock market, the quarterly results are largely negative for all Western markets, which were moving around their peaks not long ago. In the United States, the broad S&P500 index lost -4.9% and the Nasdaq 100, rich in technology stocks, is at -9%. In Europe, the STOXX Europe 600 shows -6.5% quarterly decline and the CAC40 a little more, -6.89%. But it could have been worse, since the indices moved even lower at the beginning of March.
The main determinant of the color of the indices today, apart from the war in Ukraine, is the publication at 2:30 p.m. of the employment figures for March in the United States. Labor market conditions are one of the Fed’s major monetary policy variables. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 3.7%. “We have decent growth, very high inflation and an economy that should see its unemployment rate drop to 3.7%. If the Fed doesn’t raise rates by 50 basis points in May, it never will“Summarizes ING economist James Knightley. Still, a lot can happen between now and the next central bank meeting, scheduled for May 3 and 4.
In other news, the Ukrainian presidency fears that Moscow is now concentrating its troops for an assault in the south. On the corporate side, Sanofi unveiled the conditions for listing its active ingredients subsidiary on the stock exchange, while Sodexo announced its half-year results. Bolloré sells its logistics assets in Africa to MSC for €5.7 billion. In the automotive sector, French registrations in March do not bode well, while shortages continue, forcing Ford and General Motors to halt production lines in the United States.
European markets are expected around breakeven this morning. Asian markets end their week in scattered order. Rather down in Japan and Australia and up in mainland China.
Economic highlights of the day
The final March Manufacturing PMIs will be released throughout the day, ahead of the March Eurozone consumer price index (11:00). In the United States, the big statistic of the week will be released at 2:30 p.m.: employment figures in March. The PMI Manufacturier (3:45 p.m.) and the ISM Manufacturier (4:00 p.m.) will follow. The whole macro diary here.
The euro is back down to 1.1065 USD this morning. The ounce of gold takes the opposite slope to 1937 USD. Oil remains high, but less so than in recent days with Brent from the North Sea at 107.40 USD and US light crude WTI just under 100 USD. The yield on US debt goes up a little to 2.38% over 10 years. Bitcoin retreats to $45,500.
The main changes in recommendations
- Adevinta: Exane BNP Paribas goes from neutral to underperformance by targeting 70 NOK.
- Basler: Jefferies remains to be held with a target reduced from 134 to 102 EUR.
- Davide Campari: Citigroup goes from neutral to long, targeting EUR 12.30.
- Nordea: HSBC begins follow-up to hold targeting SEK 101.65.
- Schibsted: Exane BNP Paribas goes from outperformance to neutral by targeting 260 SEK.
- Sixt: Berenberg went from holding to buying, targeting EUR 183.
- Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken: HSBC resumes buying monitoring, targeting 128 SEK.
- Svenska Handelsbanken: HSBC resumes buying monitoring, targeting 110 SEK.
- Swedbank: HSBC resumes follow-up to keep aiming for 150 SEK.
In France
Important (and less important) announcements
- New vehicle registrations were down 19.5% in France in March, according to the PFA.
- Sanofi will list its active ingredient subsidiary Euroapi on May 6.
- Bolloré sold Bolloré Africa Logistics to MSC for €5.7 billion in enterprise value.
- Sodexo improves its results in 1er fiscal semester.
- Gaztransport & Technigaz obtains approval in principle from ClassNK for a new LNG fuel tank concept for ro-ro and cruise ships.
- Foncière Inea acquires 11,000 m² of business at the gates of Lyon from Icade Promotion.
- Voltalia acquires Cap Sud.
- SPAC 2MX Organic is negotiating the takeover of InVivo’s distribution activities.
- Transgene strengthens its board.
- Onxeo will present new preclinical data with AsiDNA at AACR 2022.
- Quantum Genomics announces the publication of a new scientific article on its product QGC606.
- Metabolic Explorer, Carbios, Auplata, Navya, Xilam, Adomos, NOAH, Theraclion, Amoeba, Althéora, DLSI, SFIT, Forestière Equatoriale, Financière Moncey, Compagnie du Cambodge, SIF Artois have published their accounts and/or forecasts.
In the world
Important announcements (and others)
- The capitalistic future of Toshiba at the heart of a vast debate in Japan.
- Ford and General Motors halt factory production in Michigan due to lack of chips.
- Vestas Wind Systems receives orders for 55 MW for Italian wind farms.
- Sika finalizes the sale of its industrial coatings in Europe for €200 million.
- Zehnder acquires Dutch Filtech.
- Georg Fischer sells his shares in the American joint venture GF Linamar.
- The main publications of the day: Wan Hai, Sodexo, China Airlines, Danieli… The whole agenda here.
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