Omicron, who cares, Omicron, does not care … Investors have decided that the first week of the 2022 vintage will be that of the vengeance of the damned of the covid. A movement already seen on a few occasions in the past two years, when the pandemic waves ebbed or when clinical trials began to produce positive vaccine data. Suddenly the airline sector is once again furiously trendy, like the tourist compartment more generally. The wise investor swore yesterday by Ryanair, TUI or Accor, and offered himself a nice slice of banking with ABN Amro or Société Générale. On the other hand, home delivery is completely a thing of the past and health is no longer useful. Wrung out Eurofins, blasted BioMérieux, crushed Sartorius Stedim Biotech, pulverized Ambu, scattered like HelloFresh puzzle and charred Just Eat Takeaway. Even the Nasdaq and its bodybuilding valuations are no longer successful.
To put it simply, Omicron may not be the predicted cataclysm, and perhaps even foreshadows the start of the gradual disappearance of the coronavirus. Optimists want proof that the contaminations pile up like followers on Ariana Grande’s account, while the resuscitation beds fill up much less quickly. The conspirators bark that the vaccine is useless, the vaccinated howl that thanks to it, they are less sick. Are we approaching the end of the tunnel or are we going to be disillusioned for the umpteenth time? Personally, I have no idea, but I find these fellows spinning funny.
This roughly brought automotive expression offers me a capillotracted transition to another compartment very popular with investors yesterday, that of motor vehicles. After all, the disappearance of the covid should allow auto sales to pick up again, when they were almost as depressed in 2021 as in 2020, but for different reasons. In 2020, the concessions were closed and people were scared. In 2021, the concessions were open but had no vehicles to sell, due to a lack of electronic cards. Two sectoral events that took place this week deserve our attention.
First, the fact that Toyota sold more vehicles in the United States than General Motors in 2021. GM had not been dethroned since 1931, when the firm had taken over Ford. It’s a bit anecdotal – 2021 was an atypical year because of shortages – but it still illustrates the developments in a sector that is less inert than is generally thought. The other news is the arrival of Tesla at the 15e world place of manufacturers. There, I must make an act of contrition. I think I wrote two years ago that Elon Musk’s group was far from the leaders of the sector in terms of industrialization. In 2017, it had delivered just over 101,000 vehicles. In 2021, this figure has been multiplied by 9 to 936,000 units, which puts it in the top 20 in the world, ahead of Volvo Car and behind Mitsubishi Motors, roughly speaking. Tesla is in the process of succeeding in its bet to become a mass manufacturer, thanks to an explosive cocktail that continues to reinforce the brand’s desirability against the aristocrats of the automotive sector. In 2021 in Europe, the American owns 13.5% of the electricity market. Thanks to the early release of its ID3 and ID4, only Volkswagen holds it high with 14.5% of the market. But it is the Tesla Model 3 which is by far the best-selling electric vehicle in Europe.
European markets are expected to decline after the records signed yesterday, in particular because of the decline in technology stocks observed in the United States. Is it the proximity of the minutes from the last Fed meeting tonight? In any case, we are talking about the US central bank’s interest rate hike program again, which constitutes a credible a posteriori justification to explain the slackening of the Nasdaq yesterday (I remind you here that less favorable financing conditions weigh on the so-called growth values, Cqfd). But I am not going to tell you jokes, the main determinant of the market remains the evolution of the pandemic and the position of the pendulum between the optimistic marker and the pessimistic marker. But as my neighbor Emile would say, whose language is hardly less punished than that of a president of the republic, “what do you care, anyway it goes up even when the hospitals are full“.
(Mom, if you read me, I’m sorry I wrote a dirty note on your birthday, but it’s the president’s fault)
The economic highlights of the day
A somewhat busy session at the macroeconomic level, with the final services PMI indices for the month of December for the major economies. In the United States, the ADP December employment study (2.15 p.m.) will be followed by weekly DOE oil stocks (4.30 p.m.) and minutes from the last Fed meeting (8 p.m.).
The dollar pushes the euro down to 1.12886 USD. The ounce of gold goes back to 1814 USD. Oil is slipping back slightly to $ 79.76 per barrel Brent and $ 76.74 per barrel WTI. Bitcoin recovers 1% to $ 46,345.
The main changes in recommendations
- AB Volvo: JP Morgan changes from overweighting to neutral targeting 200 SEK.
- Chrysalis Investments: Jefferies switches from hold to buy targeting 249 GBp.
- Continental: JP Morgan moves from overweight to neutral targeting EUR 110.
- ElringKlinger: JP Morgan moves from neutral to overweight targeting EUR 16.
- Eutelsat: Berenberg remains to be held with an adjusted target of EUR 12 to 11.80.
- Ferguson: Berenberg switches from keep to buy, aiming for 15,000 GBp.
- London Stock Exchange: Citigroup moves from neutral to buy targeting 9300 GBp.
- Marks and Spencer: AlphaValue goes from selling to accumulating by targeting 266 GBp.
- Nestlé: Jefferies goes from neutral to underperformance targeting CHF 100.
- Ocado: Berenberg switches from keep to buy, aiming for 1990 GBp.
- Orange Belgium: Jefferies remains to be kept with a target price reduced from 22 to 19.50 EUR.
- Pirelli: JP Morgan moves from neutral to overweight targeting EUR 7.50.
- Proximus: Jefferies continues to underperform with a price target raised from 13.60 to 14.30 EUR.
- Stabilus: JP Morgan moves from neutral to underweight, targeting 62 EUR.
- Telenet: Jefferies starts buying monitoring by targeting EUR 42.50.
In France
Important (and less important) announcements
- Societe Generale and Crédit Mutuel Arkéa in line for the French subsidiary of ING.
- Vinci has appointed an investment services provider for its € 600 million share buyback program.
- Amundi unveils a new organization after the acquisition of Lyxor.
- CNP Assurances recovers € 2.1 billion of outstanding Allianz France.
- Valeo expects further improvement in supply of microchips quarter after quarter in 2022 after the recovery observed in the last three months of 2021.
- Aéroports de Paris sanctioned by the World Bank for acts of corruption in the allocation of concessions between 2013 and 2015.
- Atos completes the acquisition of Cloudreach.
- Gaztransport & Technigaz obtains an order from Samsung Heavy Industries for the design of the tanks of a new LNG carrier.
- Voltalia commissions the Hallen battery storage plant in the United Kingdom
- Séché Environnement is developing in sanitation in Ile-de-France.
- Alpha MOS unveils the latest version of its IRIS Smart Vision electronic eye.
- Capelli strengthens its staff.
- Innate Pharma obtains an EMP of € 28.7 million.
- A new general manager at MG International.
- Believe acquires a majority stake in the Jo & Co label.
- Vergnet hopes to return “around the equilibrium” to the level of net income this year.
- Nanobiotix participates in conferences.
- Fleury Michon sells Proconi.
- Dolfines prequalified by Saudi Aramco for future tenders.
In the world
Important announcements (and others)
- Toyota becomes the leading auto dealer in the USA for the first time in its history.
- Samsung is expected to achieve its best-ever fourth quarter profit on strong demand for chips.
- An electric Mercedes prototype (Daimler) passes the 1000 km range barrier.
- China fines Alibaba and Tencent for not reporting transactions.
- Walmart will hire more than 3,000 drivers in the United States to develop door-to-door delivery.
- BMW achieves record sales of more than 2.2 million vehicles in 2021.
- Tencent will sell 2.6% of its stake in e-commerce company Sea, Singapore.
- Sony will launch a subsidiary in the electric automobile.
- China Huarong drops 40% as trade resumes after a 9-month hiatus.
- Ford doubles production target for the F-150 electric pickup.
- Nikola waives his intellectual property claims against Tesla.
- Google strengthens in security by acquiring Siemplify.
- Main results publications : Costco Wholesale, Fast Retailing, Sligro, Finnair, TFF Group…
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