The outcome of the French parliamentary elections is tantamount to a political earthquake. President Macron must now leap over his shadow and learn to compromise.
Emmanuel Macron was denied an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Instead of ruling, he will now have to forge alliances.
A resounding slap in the face for Emmanuel Macron – this is the only way to interpret the outcome of the French parliamentary elections. Macron’s electoral alliance missed an absolute majority in the National Assembly. This is a first since the election calendar in France was changed so that the parliamentary elections take place a few weeks after the presidential election. This system is designed to give the new incumbent a clear majority.
But Macron’s Ensemble Alliance, with 245 MPs, falls well short of the 289 seats that would be needed. The division of the country into three political blocs, which the presidential election revealed, has been confirmed.
The second force is Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s left alliance Nupes. Surprisingly, however, the politician who lost Macron in the run-off election in April has gained strength in particular: the right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen has increased the number of her MPs more than tenfold. The Republican solidarity against their party has dissolved in this election.
The perspectives were missing
For Macron, the outcome is a disaster. The signal couldn’t be clearer: yes, the French gave him a second term in April. But that wasn’t a free pass. Carrying on as before is clearly not an option for many in France.
Just a few weeks ago it seemed the President understood that. On the evening of his election victory, he had promised to find an answer to anger, doubts and the democratic crisis in the country. His second mandate should not be a continuation of the first, he explained, but bring a completely new beginning.
But it hasn’t wanted to take shape since then. Rather, Macron has lacked prospects and momentum in recent weeks. For a long time he hardly appeared in domestic politics. In the hot phase of the election campaign, he and his ministers warned above all of the “chaos” that threatened France without a solid majority in the presidential camp. In many cases they remained vague as to what they intended to do with this majority.
Negotiate laboriously instead of governing
This behavior paid off. The consequences are far-reaching and not without irony. Macron, the “Jupiter President,” the man known for his lonely rule, showing little respect for Parliament and bypassing the unions, must now make a radical change.
Going forward, he and his government will have to compromise, forge alliances and no doubt make concessions in whatever they do if they are to prevent France from slipping into political paralysis in the years to come.
It won’t be easy. The ruling party and its allies lack an absolute majority, not just a few MPs, but more than 40 votes. The choice of potential partners is limited. The other two big blocs, the left-wing alliance Nupes – should it survive – and the extreme right are hardly an option.
The conservative Républicains are the most likely candidates. With 64 seats, they would have the necessary number of votes. But first the heterogeneous party would have to agree on working with Macron’s alliance. It is not a given that this will happen. Your party president declared on the evening of the election that you wanted to stay in the opposition.
France is now entering foreign territory. The country is not used to the search for a consensus beyond its own party lines. The Fifth Republic has already seen twice that a president could only govern with a relative majority in the National Assembly. The experience in France also includes three cohabitation governments in which the prime minister and the parliamentary majority belonged to a different political camp. However, these episodes date back twenty years or more and were marked by a poisoned political climate. It was not for nothing that the aim of adjusting the election calendar from 2002 was to avoid scenarios of this kind.
Seldom has it been so difficult to answer the question of where the country is headed the day after a parliamentary election. France may not be facing a completely new kind of crisis after Sunday’s vote – but it is facing enormous uncertainty.