The chair of the US House of Representatives has not been impressed by threats from China and admonitions from her own party. Your visit brings the beleaguered island republic even more into trouble.
The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, is received by the Taiwanese President in Taipei.
Nancy Pelosi sees herself as a fearless advocate for Taiwan. Since nationalist firecrackers in the People’s Republic threatened to get the plane of America’s third-highest office holder from the sky. But the 82-year-old speaker, who will probably have to resign after the congressional elections in November, was undeterred. On what will probably be her last trip to Asia in this capacity, she insisted on stopping in Taipei.
Tendency to make a big entrance
With the visit, Pelosi wanted to reaffirm her support for the beleaguered island. She presents herself once again as a courageous politician who defies the communist regime. In 1991, two years after the Tiananmen massacre, Pelosi unfurled a protest banner in Tiananmen Square.
In the eyes of the Chinese rulers, Pelosi has crossed a red line. They interpret the visit as a step towards recognizing Taiwan’s statehood. Beijing does not just emphasize its displeasure with verbal attacks. The People’s Liberation Army displays its offensive power within sight of Taiwan. Several areas in the South China Sea are apparently closed to shipping for maneuvers.
Does this repeat a scenario like that of the mid-1990s? Before the 1995 presidential election, China suspected incumbent Lee Teng-hui was seeking independence. The leadership in Beijing then fired rockets in the Taiwan Strait. Washington deployed several aircraft carriers to the region. However, the storm abated again. The same happened after the visit of Newt Gingrich, who stopped in Taiwan in 1997 as Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Such dramaturgy – attempts at intimidation, war rumors, de-escalation – is also conceivable this time. But the risks of a confrontation are far greater than they were a quarter of a century ago. The military balance of power has shifted in favor of the People’s Republic. Some threatening gestures from the Middle Kingdom can no longer be dismissed as bluffs. In 1996, the People’s Liberation Army would not have been able to destroy American aircraft carriers. Today she probably is.
Other factors are also making the current situation dangerous: the head of state and party leader Xi Jinping is about to be confirmed for a third term. He cannot afford to appear as a hesitant. This increases the risk of a military overreaction.
The leadership in Beijing is also making it ever more unabashedly clear that a “reunification” of mainland China with Taiwan must be enforced – if necessary by military means. The Chinese regime is no longer satisfied with the status quo, with Taiwan being independent in many respects.
Diplomatic Hussar Ride
If Pelosi thinks she’s helping Taiwan with her hussar ride, she’s wrong. The eminent question of what it can do with it remains unanswered. What is clear, however, is that Beijing is tightening the noose around what it sees as a breakaway province.
There is no doubt that America and other democracies must not let China dictate red lines everywhere. It is not China who decides who is allowed to receive whom on the diplomatic stage. This applies to Taiwan’s president as well as to the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of the Tibetans. The western community of values must show its steadfastness towards China. Because Beijing’s pressure attempts know no bounds.
The West’s mere symbolic politics is out of place. Nancy Pelosi’s flying visit falls into this category. Your stay in Taipei has not yet triggered a military exchange of blows. Within a day, however, it damaged the Taiwanese president’s almost eight-year balancing policy. This does not bode well for one of Asia’s most dangerous geopolitical hotspots.