Plastic production and waste will increase sharply by 2060, even if strong framework measures are taken at the global level, warns the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Friday June 3, while the The United Nations (UN) recently launched negotiations to combat this pollution.
If nothing is done, the production of plastic will almost triple compared to 2019, going from 460 million tonnes to 1,231 million tonnes (Mt), and that of plastic waste will increase in the same proportions, from 353 Mt to 1,014 Mt, according to a report of the OECD.
The hundreds of millions of tons of waste produced each year, which degrades into microplastics, are found in all the oceans of the globe, in the sea ice, in the bodies of humans and animals, and even in the air taken on top of mountains.
The UN launched negotiations in early March for a global treaty against plastic pollution, a scourge that threatens the environment and contributes to the collapse of biodiversity. But the development of a text is not expected before 2024.
Two scenarios
The OECD is evaluating two scenarios with reinforced measures covering the entire life cycle of plastics (production/use/recycling or disposal), as provided for in the mandate of the negotiators of the future international treaty.
The first scenario “regional action” provides for differentiated commitments by country, with more ambitious measures for those in the OECD, which are wealthier. The second, “global ambition”consider “a very stringent set of measures designed to reduce global plastic discharge to near zero by 2060”.
But even in these two scenarios, the use of plastics and the production of waste are increasing sharply. In “regional action”, the production of plastics drops from 460 Mt to 1,018 Mt (i.e. 17% less than the level expected if nothing is done) and that of waste climbs from 353 Mt to 837 Mt (also -17%). Only the quantities of “mismanaged waste” and “plastic waste” in the environment would fall in absolute value compared to the level of 2019.
“A fairly limited economic cost”
The volume of mismanaged waste would increase from 79 Mt in 2019 to 59 Mt in 2060 in the regional scenario and 6 Mt in the global scenario, against an increase to 153 Mt if nothing is done. Releases into nature would decrease from 22 Mt to 20 Mt in the regional scenario and to 6 Mt in the global scenario, against an increase to 44 Mt without any measures.
If nothing is done, the stocks already accumulated in aquatic environments would be multiplied by three for rivers and lakes (109 Mt to 348 Mt) and by nearly five in the oceans (30 Mt to 145 Mt) .
The OECD believes that both reduction scenarios could be implemented “for a relatively modest cost in relation to GDP”. Regional action would result in a reduction of “only 0.3%” of global GDP compared to the scenario ” reference “, without any limiting action. But with strong regional disparities, the main losers being sub-Saharan Africa (1.1%) and European Union countries that are not members of the OECD (1.8%).
The scenario “global ambition” would reduce global GDP by 0.8% compared to the reference scenario, “which shows once again that public policies have a fairly limited economic cost”underlines the OECD.
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