Podcast “Learned something again”: How the weather affects the Ukraine war

Danger from Medicanes
How Weather Affects the Ukraine War

By Kevin Schulte
09/16/2022, 7:10 p.m

Nobody can predict how the war in Ukraine will develop. What is certain, however, is that both warring parties must be prepared for a change in the weather. There is a risk of flooding and muddy ground in autumn, and bitterly cold days and nights in winter. For that reason alone, the war will probably last a long time.

The Ukrainian counterattacks in the war against Russia come at just the right time. On the one hand, because Kiev’s military is proving to the West that military support is worthwhile and is thus also giving emphasis to the main battle tank debate. On the other hand, because the warm late summer is saying goodbye and a change in the weather is imminent.

This can have a great influence on the course of war, is a security expert Joachim Weber from the University of Bonn convinced in the ntv podcast “Learned again”. The weather plays a “very decisive role in the current calculations and strategic considerations of the warring parties”.

It is quite possible that the Ukrainians will undertake further offensive counterattacks, especially in the south of their country, in the coming days and weeks. “It is of crucial importance for Ukraine that the Russians are pushed back a bit. Since the Russians are located west of the Dnieper, in the Cherson region and the surrounding area, they are over the crucial obstacle,” points out expert Weber Dnieper, the widest and longest river in Ukraine.

Site “hardly usable” from October

But if the Ukrainians in the region manage to pull off a similarly large counterattack as they did recently in the north-east, they would have a good starting position for the autumn and winter.

Autumn in Ukraine is traditionally wet and muddy. These are not good conditions for heavy military equipment. Modern tanks can now overcome mud and sludge, but only with great difficulty. From October onwards, the site will probably be “hardly usable for either side,” military expert Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich said at the end of August Star podcast “Ukraine – the situation” forecast.

Larger offensives would be difficult under these circumstances. “When it’s muddy, you can hardly move with tracked or wheeled vehicles outside of paved roads. This means that the war activities will then decrease from both sides because they will no longer be able to make any significant movements forwards,” says Masala to consider.

Ukraine may have deliberately chosen the timing of its latest counter-offensive. In the first weeks of September it was still mild across the country, sometimes even late summer warm. Almost 30 degrees on the Black Sea, around 20 degrees in the east of the country.

The prospects for the rest of the month predict mild weather, says ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander in the podcast “Wieder was learned”: “In the south of the country, towards Odessa, it can also be summery again with temperatures of up to 25 degrees The north cools down with maximum values ​​of around 15 degrees, in single digits at night, locally it is slowly moving towards ground frost.The sometimes heavy rain that the weather computers are currently calculating is very noticeable.In the north of the country, September is likely to end particularly wet “Alexander sums it up.

Hurricanes over the Mediterranean

And the south of Ukraine is usually not spared from heavy rain showers and thunderstorms in autumn. Medicanes can even develop over the Mediterranean at this time of year. A “Mediterranean hurricane” is a particularly intense storm, the foothills of which can also move towards the Black Sea and then on to the Ukrainian mainland, reports Björn Alexander.

A special weather phenomenon that, statistically speaking, occurs once a year in autumn or winter. “A small hurricane over the Mediterranean. Such extreme storm events are often triggered by very warm summers with excessively high water temperatures. And we currently have them in the Mediterranean and also in the Black Sea, the water temperatures are two to four degrees too high,” says meteorologist Alexander im ntv podcast. “Such water temperatures always release a lot of energy into the atmosphere. As a result, storms and thunderstorms can become more intense. And that means larger amounts of rain.”

In any case, heavy rain, which leads to high water and flooding, could influence the course of the war. When a river bursts its banks, makeshift pontoon bridges are quickly swept away. In that case it would be much more difficult to get weapons, rockets and food for the troops to the front. Of course, this applies to both warring parties.

Whether and how such severe storms will occur in Ukraine in the coming weeks and months is difficult to predict in concrete terms, says expert Björn Alexander. As of now, long-term weather forecasts for the south of Ukraine predict a slightly less wet October compared to previous years. “This often goes hand in hand with clear air and clear nights. Then significant and deeper frosts are quite conceivable. In October you would have to be prepared for significantly lower temperatures locally.”

Tanks benefit from ground frost

As soon as the ground is frozen, which can be expected by November at the latest, a new situation will arise. “Then it will be possible to move with tanks again,” military expert Carlo Masala makes clear. The troops may then carry out offensive maneuvers again.

By January at the latest, the temperatures will drop again. And it’s not just a muddy Ukrainian autumn that’s tough, an ice-cold Ukrainian winter can also be really uncomfortable. “In the core winter, i.e. January and February, the temperatures easily drop to minus 20 degrees. This extremely cold winter can also come as early as December. The local people are actually used to it, but the situation has of course changed as a result of the war significantly changed,” points out Björn Alexander.

Mud landscape before and after winter

Looking at the zigzag weather shows how much this can influence the war. In a few weeks, continuous rain and storms should make the area largely impassable. Then the rainy season turns into the icy winter. These are not good conditions for the soldiers. Especially for the Russians, if rumors are true that there is an acute shortage of proper winter gear among Moscow’s troops. The heavy military equipment, on the other hand, is making better progress than in autumn because the ground freezes over and the terrain is therefore passable again. At the end of winter, when the temperatures turn more spring-like, it then becomes slippery again as the ground thaws, leaving a muddy landscape.

Before the weather becomes a significant factor in the war, possibly as early as October, there could be even greater military strikes from both sides in the coming weeks. “The Ukrainians will try to throw the Russians back as far as possible on the east bank of the Dnepr. Then you would be in a reasonably tolerable position for the winter, in which both warring parties will then prepare for the next round, which you have to fear next spring at the latest “, expects security expert Joachim Weber.

In this phase of the war, the Ukrainians are vehemently pushing for the delivery of main battle tanks. In order to secure a better starting position for the winter and the time after. Because the war will most likely go beyond the winter.