Podcast “Learned something again”: Why Putin is running out of tanks and missiles

Full coffers, empty factories
Why Putin is running out of tanks and missiles

By Christian Herrmann
05/16/2022, 07:22

The Russian war chest is well stocked. Economists even think it’s possible that the Russian president can continue his attack on Ukraine for two more years despite the sanctions. But money isn’t everything in war: the Russian troops consume and lose a great deal of man and machine, and there is no sign of supplies.

No other country has ever faced sanctions as severe as those imposed on Russia. Foreign currency was confiscated, banks and companies excluded from the international economy, deliveries of important technologies were banned and the accounts of warmongers and oligarchs were partially frozen. Nevertheless, Russia continues to fire rockets at Ukrainian cities, and the country seems to be coping better with Western penalties than expected.

“Russia’s war chest will last longer than the West thinks,” military economist Marcus Keupp warned in an interview with ntv back in April. Among other things, because the war is taking place like it was in the deepest 20th century, with relatively simple mechanized systems. Russia can afford that.

Russian economists also have no concerns that Russia could run out of money. The country still has the means to carry out its “special military operation”. at least two years long,” they told the independent Russian news site “The Bell” anonymously. The money is there, the only question is: “How much are people willing to endure?”

A third of the troops lost

But it is possible that not only are the Russian war coffers fuller than expected, but also the losses higher than expected. Over the weekend, the British Ministry of Defense issued a damning verdict on the Russian attack: Russia may have lost around a third of the ground forces sent to Ukraine, an intelligence update said. Already at the beginning of the month it was saidthat wear and tear is sometimes so great that it could take years to restore the original combat strength.

An assessment that coincides with statements by the US Secretary of Commerce. In any case, at a hearing in the US Senate last week, Gina Raimondo said something remarkable about Russian war equipment. “We have reports that Ukrainians are finding Russian military equipment in the combat zone filled with semiconductors from dishwashers and refrigerators,” she said in the “Washington Postquoted.

Semiconductor export collapses

The Russian defense industry seems to be running out of components and spare parts – because of the Western sanctions, the US minister claims. After the Russian attack on Ukraine, the United States imposed export controls on important technologies against another country for the first time. As a result, the export of semiconductors and other important components collapsed by almost 70 percent, Raimondo said before the US Senate.

At least two Russian tank factories are said to have already stopped production due to supply problems. Avtovas also announced last week that it would reopen its factories close for a week had to because components from Europe were missing. A permanent condition at the largest Russian car manufacturer since the beginning of the war.

Many rockets “burned”

But the problem appears to be constraining not only Russia’s automobile and armored industries, but also the makers of missiles, bombs, and cruise missiles. After all, modern guided missiles also require components such as chips so that they can reliably find their target. But stockpiles of these weapons are dwindling, as are Department of Defense officials always once again claim in conversations with journalists. The Russian army “burned” many precision-guided missiles during its airstrikes in Ukraine, they say. That’s why she has to use older, so-called “dumb bombs” more and more frequently – for example in Mariupol, where Russia has been bombing the steel works in which Ukrainian fighters have holed up for many weeks without success.

Unconfirmed Reports According to the production problems, the Ulyanovsk armaments factory in the city of the same name on the Volga is affected. Anti-aircraft missiles capable of intercepting enemy fighter planes and missiles have been produced there since the 1960s. At the moment, however, many production lines are standing still, if you are to believe your own employees. According to their statements, electronic components in the factory in particular “hardly ever come from Russia”. The vast majority should come from Germany instead. Since the beginning of the war, however, they have not been delivered because of the sanctions.

Industry “rusting away”

A report that former World Bank economist Branko Milanovic cannot confirm, but can explain: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia focused its economy primarily on its natural resources and agriculture. Oil, gas, wheat and grain – Russia has that, Russia can do that. But industry and technology? That has been rusting away for 30 years, writes Milanovic in his blog. “Almost everything that is advanced depends on Western technology.”

Alena Epifanova sees it that way too. The Berlin political scientist examined for the German Society for Foreign Relations (DGAP) the Russian internet and technology policy. The Kremlin has invested a lot of money in online barriers and Internet censorship in recent years, she explained in the ntv podcast “Learned again” in March. The industry, which supplies important components for modern products, was not considered: “Russia is dependent on foreign key technologies,” she says – and estimates that it would take about 30 years to catch up.

Smuggling via Kazakhstan

An obstacle that the Russian leadership now seems to be aware of. In early may, the National news Agency of Ukraine (Ukrinform) reported that Russia is a partner of the Collective Security Treaty organization (CSTO) new production lines for important, also military components, which were missing due to western sanctions.

At the same time, the Ulyanovsk armaments factory is said to be trying to smuggle the urgently needed German components for its rockets into the country via Kazakhstan. According to previous, unconfirmed reports, not successful because of the production costs due to the new delivery route “increase significantly and would blow up the available budget”, as they say.

The conclusion is clear – at least in the eyes of Western war observers: the Russian military is in every respect significantly weaker than it was before the Ukraine invasion, the British Ministry of Defense recently coolly stated in another Intelligence update analyzed. The sanctions would exacerbate the problems. Regardless of the outcome of the war, the following applies: “Russia’s ability to deploy and deploy armed forces will be permanently impaired.”