Polls before parliamentary elections
France’s right-wing populists are eyeing an absolute majority
22.06.2024, 07:25 a.m.
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President Macron has called for new elections in France following his coalition’s clear defeat in the European elections. His party will probably no longer have a say in parliament in the future, and the right-wing populists around Le Pen are even in line for an absolute majority – which would also affect cooperation with Germany.
According to a survey, the French right-wing populists could achieve an absolute majority in the upcoming parliamentary elections. According to the survey, they could have 250 to 300 representatives in the National Assembly – an absolute majority is 289 seats. This was the result of a survey by the Odoxa Institute on behalf of the magazine “Le Nouvel Obs”.
According to the survey, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) would receive 33 percent of the vote in the first round on June 30, putting it ahead of the left-green electoral alliance, which is running under the name New Popular Front, with 28 percent. President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal camp would therefore receive 19 percent of voting intentions.
Bad cards for the presidential camp
If we break it down into parliamentary seats, this would give the RN a majority in parliament. 160 to 210 MPs would go to the left, 70 to 120 MPs would go to the presidential camp, and 10 to 50 MPs would go to the conservatives, the Republicans, and the other right. The survey predicts a voter turnout of 64 percent.
Another survey by Ifop Fiducial for the broadcaster LCI, the newspaper “Le Figaro” and Sud Radio puts the RN at 35 percent. According to this, 29 percent want to vote for the left-wing New Popular Front and 21.5 percent for the presidential camp.
According to the daily poll, the RN would have 200 to 240 seats, the New Popular Front 180 to 210 seats, the presidential camp 110 to 180 seats and the conservative Republicans and other right-wing parties 40 to 60 seats. However, these results should be interpreted “with caution” in view of the various possibilities in the run-off election in the second round on July 7, it was said.
President Emmanuel Macron called for new elections following his coalition’s clear defeat in the European elections. The election will take place in two rounds on June 30 and July 7.
What if RN wins?
If Marine Le Pen’s right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) party emerges victorious from the parliamentary elections, this would probably affect cooperation with Germany. RN party leader Jordan Bardella and his predecessor Le Pen have always “made politics with anti-German sentiments,” says Ross. Both spread the image that Germany dominates Brussels and works against French interests. “There is a danger that old rivalries and clichés will be revived,” warns Ross.
The potential points of conflict can also be seen in the right-wing populists’ election manifesto: The RN wants to withdraw from the EU electricity market and terminate the migration pact. An election victory for the RN “would bring many things to collapse,” Ross is certain. In addition, conflicts with EU law are emerging, for example with the “national preference” sought by the RN, which should apply when awarding contracts or hiring employees.
Until recently, the election manifesto also stated that the German-French armament projects such as the fighter jet and the battle tank should be abandoned. But Bardella has now rowed back on this. He assured on Wednesday that he wants to comply with France’s international obligations.
AfD too right for RN
The RN has not shown any particular interest in relations with Germany – or other EU partners – so far. The focus is solely on national politics. Even in the European election campaign, EU issues played only a minor role.
The break with the former sister party AfD in Germany has been completed; the RN has terminated its cooperation in the EU Parliament because the French right-wing populists consider the German MEPs to be too right-wing extremist. And when AfD leader Alice Weidel recently drew a parallel between the occupied Crimean peninsula and the French overseas department of Mayotte, Le Pen firmly rejected any interference.