Neither quite the same, nor quite another: the left will not emerge unscathed from the popular primary, especially if it brings together most of the 460,000 registered voters. Admittedly, this number may seem derisory compared to the 2.8 million voters who participated in the appointment of François Hollande in 2011 or the 4.3 million who consecrated the victory of François Fillon in 2016. But times have changed. …
Neither quite the same, nor quite another: the left will not emerge unscathed from the popular primary, especially if it brings together most of the 460,000 registered voters. Admittedly, this number may seem derisory compared to the 2.8 million voters who participated in the appointment of François Hollande in 2011 or the 4.3 million who consecrated the victory of François Fillon in 2016. But times have changed. , and this number will seem considerable in view of more recent internal elections, such as the environmental primary in September (120,000 voters) or the LR congress in December (114,000).
Automatically registered
Admittedly, most of the declared candidates refuse to participate in what some call a masquerade. But they saw their name automatically registered by the organizers. For the first time, we will therefore vote for candidates “unbeknownst to their own free will”. “If I were in their place, confides a former Socialist Prime Minister, I would file a complaint”. But they won’t do anything about it, and on Sunday evening everyone will have, whatever they say, a discreet eye on the results of the popular primary. Because, for Yannick Jadot, Anne Hidalgo and to a lesser extent Jean-Luc Mélenchon, nothing will be like before.
Especially since the probable winner (except for a twist) should be called Christiane Taubira.
If they do not emerge victorious from the “majority vote” (a system of ranking candidates rather than choosing just one), which seems likely, there will be strong pressure on the top three to consider of this election, or even for them to withdraw. It will be especially strong on Anne Hidalgo, mired in the depths of the polls, and who had initially called for the organization of a primary on the left, before retracting. But in his own party too, the pressure is likely to increase, especially from a leadership and a first secretary worried about party finances, as the specter of non-reimbursement of party expenses looms. campaign, if the candidate does not exceed the 5% mark.
Put Taubira into orbit
Especially since the probable winner (except for a twist) should be called Christiane Taubira, the only one to have declared that she would submit to the verdict of the popular primary, which one ends up wondering if she was not organized to put it into orbit. Not sure, however, that the possible momentum of this primary makes it a unique candidate for the left; rather one more candidate, just a little better placed.
In the meantime, this Wednesday’s “Chained Duck” reveals that several socialist federations have called on their members to register for the primary, so that Anne Hidalgo does not score too ridiculously, somewhere between Pierre Larrouturou and Charlotte Marchandise, two officially registered candidates. Like what the parties take into account this consultation; everyone fears above all that the members of the rival parties have infiltrated the electorate to favor their candidate. Official disinterest does not prevent vigilance…