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Post-election surveys – PiS ruling party ahead in elections in Poland – opposition celebrates – News

16 October 2023

According to forecasts, the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) is in the lead in the parliamentary elections in Poland, but will miss an absolute majority.
The National Conservatives, who have been in power since 2015, are likely to get 36.8 percent of the vote, according to post-election surveys by the opinion research institute Ipsos.
However, three opposition parties could form the new government.

The second strongest force with 31.6 percent was the opposition liberal-conservative Citizens’ Coalition (KO) of former Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

The forecasts predicted that PiS would gain 200 seats in the new parliament. The majority is 231 of the 460 mandates. Only the ultra-right Konfederacja is possible as a coalition partner. But according to forecasts, this formation only got 6.2 percent – that would be 12 seats and therefore not enough for a government majority. In addition, the Konfederacja had repeatedly emphasized during the election campaign that it did not want an alliance with the PiS.

Around 29 million eligible voters were called upon to elect a new parliament. According to the forecast, voter turnout was 73 percent. This would be the highest figure in an election since the end of communism in Poland.

Because of the war in neighboring Ukraine and the increasing number of refugees, the ballot was seen as a directional choice. Poland has an important role to play in supporting Ukraine. The election campaign was dominated by the issue of migration and attacks on the EU and Germany.

According to forecasts, the opposition Citizens’ Coalition (KO) would get 163 mandates. It could form a coalition with the Christian-conservative Third Way (13 percent) and the left-wing alliance Lewica (8.6 percent). The three-party alliance would have a total of 248 members and a majority in parliament.

“Democracy has won”

Opposition leader Donald Tusk saw himself as the winner that evening: “I have never been so happy about second place. Poland has won, democracy has won, that is the end of the PiS government,” he said on election evening.

SRF News: How realistic is it that the three opposition parties will form a new government?

Pascal Kraus: The left and liberal parties will certainly try to form a government. However, this won’t be easy. There are differences between these parties, and in some cases they are at odds. They are united by their common fight against the PiS and their EU-friendly orientation. It remains to be seen whether this will be enough for a permanent and stable government. But not least because of the war in Ukraine, a neighboring country of Poland, the country quickly needs a government with strong decision-making skills.

What are the PiS’s chances of staying in power?

This will be difficult for them. The national conservatives are very isolated in the party landscape. Only the right-wing radicals come into question as possible majority gainers. But that doesn’t seem to be enough for a majority at the moment. All other parties have ruled out cooperation with the PiS. This shows once again that Poland is a deeply divided country politically: the right-wing bloc on one side and the left-wing and liberal parties on the other. They have been fighting each other fiercely for years – cooperation is practically impossible.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki declared his party the winner of the election. Since the end of communism, no party in Poland has managed to win parliamentary elections three times in a row. His party will try to form a stable government if it receives the order from the president, he told the broadcaster “TVP Info”.

Man.

President Andrzej Duda, who comes from the ranks of the PiS, had already announced before the election that he would stick to the rule of instructing the strongest party to form a government.

The balance of power in parliament can still shift by nuances of a few percentage points for smaller parties. The official final result is expected on Tuesday. Then it will probably take a long time to form a government.