Studies and post-confinement surveys are accumulating to confirm a flight of inhabitants from large cities to smaller, even rural municipalities. By going through school statistics, such as enrollment in primary and secondary schools, the economist Olivier Bouba-Olga, professor of urban planning at the University of Poitiers, has, for example, noted that the metropolises had lost at the start of the 2021 school year more than students than expected.
With a 2.65% drop in registrations, Paris and Grenoble are the most affected, ahead of Clermont Auvergne (− 2.29%), Greater Nancy (− 2.18%), Lyon (− 2.06%) and a decline of 1.76% for all 22 cities, against a decline of 1.40% for the whole territory. As a result, rural municipalities, accustomed to seeing their workforce decline, benefit from a thinning, since they are only decreasing by 1.26%.
Nearly 18,500 students evaporated from the schools of Greater Paris in September 2021, when we expected half as many, and Mr. Bouba-Olga cautiously concludes: “The hypothesis according to which we have witnessed, over the past two years, residential mobility from the largest cities, starting with the metropolises, towards the smallest, cannot be rejected. »
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“A demetropolisation is underway”, says more clearly Jean-Marc Torrollion, president of the National Federation of Real Estate (Fnaim), on the occasion of his economic update, Wednesday, January 12. This is the conclusion of a survey carried out by its federation which, for this purpose, has enriched its database with those, now public, of the Ministry of Finance listing transactions (the DVF file, for “land value request”). , scoured the 4 million advertisements presented on the fifteen most frequented Internet sites (SeLoger, Leboncoin, From individual to individual, Bien’ici, Immonot, etc.) and called on the specialist company Yanport to process all of this.
“It is the rural departments that have seen the sharpest increase in the number of transactions, which, in eight of them, exceeded 30% in 2021: Dordogne, Creuse, Ariège, Indre, Loir-et-Cher, Gers, Yonne and Orne », observes Mr. Torrollion.
Fnaim also had the original idea of comparing price changes for a year and a half before the first confinement, i.e. from September 2018 to March 2020, and after confinement, from May 2020 to November 2021. The price increase of houses accelerated, rising from 6.1% to 13%, that of apartments contenting itself with rising from 8.6% to 9.3%, which demonstrates the redoubled attraction of individual housing.
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