Unlike the second round of 2017, which already opposed Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, that of Sunday promises to be particularly tight. If he leaves favorite, the outgoing president only has a limited reserve of votes within the moderate left and the republican right, which he largely contributed to emptying of their substance and realized on April 10 starving scores. To hope to be re-elected, Emmanuel Macron will have to rely much more on the votes of some of the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, third man in the first round, whose support is however naturally far from being acquired for him.
Opposite, Marine Le Pen has a weaker electoral base than her opponent at the end of the first round (1.6 million votes difference, against 1 million in 2017), but should recover on Sunday a large part of the voters of Eric Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, and no doubt grab a few points among the voters of the Republicans or those who attached to the Mélenchon vote only a protest dimension.
The reports of votes therefore promise to be crucial. Since last week, both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have also embarked on an operation to seduce rebellious voters.
More than 17 million votes to take
What would be the consequences of a massive abstention from supporters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Sunday, or of the postponement of a third of the voters of Valérie Pécresse and all of those of Eric Zemmour towards Marine Le Pen? You can find out with our voice report simulator. For each candidate, you can move two slides to determine what proportion of his electorate will go to Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen, and see the impact on the final result. Only the ten contenders for the Elysee Palace who failed on April 10 appear on the list, assuming that voters who slipped a Macron or Le Pen ballot into the ballot box in the first round will probably do the same in the second.
We also did not take into account the reserve of votes constituted by the approximately 11.8 million abstainers, some of whom could be tempted to move on Sunday to block … or not.
In total, the ten candidates who did not cross the threshold of the first round collected more than 17 million votes. That’s more than the two finalists combined.
At the end of the first round, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have an electoral base of around 9.8 and 8.1 million votes respectively. Behind, the three main reserves of votes are among the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (7.7 million votes), Eric Zemmour (5.5 million) and Valérie Pécresse (1.6 million). Another significant reservoir is to be found on the side of the three candidates from the traditional left (Anne Hidalgo, Fabien Roussel and Yannick Jadot), whose scores turned out to be disappointing but for whom more than 3 million voters nevertheless mobilized on 10 april.
Voting instructions
Most candidates gave voting instructions to their voters after the first round. On the right, only Eric Zemmour and Nicolas-Dupont-Aignan called to vote Marine Le Pen. In accordance with what she had announced before the first round, Valérie Pécresse (LR) refused to give instructions, but specified that she would vote Macron in a personal capacity.
On the left, Anne Hidalgo (PS), Fabien Roussel (PCF) and Yannick Jadot (EELV) clearly called for a vote for the outgoing president. Without going so far as to call on Macron to vote, Philippe Poutou (NPA) and especially Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) insisted that none of their supporters’ votes should go to Marine Le Pen. Nathalie Arthaud (LO) gave no instructions, as did Jean Lassalle.