Outgoing President Emmanuel Macron is announced at the head of the first round of the presidential election, more than ever closely followed by Marine Le Pen, a good distance from Jean-Luc Mélenchon, according to the latest surveys from five polling institutes on Friday, two days of the ballot. The outgoing Head of State collects 26% of voting intentions for the Elabe, OpinionWay and Ifop Fiducial institutes, 26.5% according to Ipsos Sopra Steria and 27% according to the Harris Interactive study. Marine Le Pen is given 22% by OpinionWay, 23% by Ipsos, 24% for Ifop and Harris Interactive and 25% for Elabe, or one point from the Head of State.
The reversed dynamics of Macron and Le Pen
Given the margin of error, the order of arrival on Sunday seems particularly uncertain, especially since Emmanuel Macron’s curve of voting intentions has continued to fall in recent days, unlike that of Marine Le Pen, constantly on the rise. In 2017, Emmanuel Macron won 24.01% of the votes cast against 21.30% for his far-right competitor. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, given at 16.5% (Ipsos), 17% (OpinionWay, Ifop), 17.5% (Elabe) or even 18% (Harris Interactive), also continues to progress but seems out of reach for the second round.
In the second round, in the event that Emmanuel Macron faces Marine Le Pen, all the studies still give a slight advantage to the Head of State, but constantly shrinking and within the margin of error. Only OpinionWay gives the outgoing president a comfortable lead (54% against 46%), while Ipsos gives him 53% of voting intentions (against 47%), Ifop 52% (against 48%), Harris interactive 51, 5% (against 48.5%) and Elabe 51% (against 49%).
A Pécresse-Zemmour match for fourth place
The five institutes also highlight a match between Valérie Pécresse and Éric Zemmour for fourth place in the first round. Ifop and Opinionway place the two candidates equally (9%), while Elabe, Harris Interactive and Ipsos give a slight advantage to Éric Zemmour (8.5% against 8% for the first two; 9% against 8, 5% for the third). Participation in the first round is estimated between 70% and 74% for Elabe and Ipsos. OpinionWay is counting on 71% and Harris Interactive and Ifop on 73%.
Although up compared to the last few days, it remains lower than the participation of the first round of 2017 which was established at 77.77%.
How are the different surveys carried out?
OpinionWay survey for Les Echos and Radio Classique carried out from April 1 to 8 by self-administered online questionnaire using the quota method among 2,000 people registered on the electoral lists. Margin of error between 1 and 2.2 points. Ipsos Sopra Steria survey for Le Parisien – Today in France and FranceInfo carried out from April 6 to 8 via the internet using the quota method among 1,709 people registered on the electoral lists. Margin of error between 1 and 2.4 points.
Ifop-Fiducial survey for Paris Match, LCI and Sud Radio carried out by self-administered online questionnaire from April 5 to 8 among 3,016 representative people according to the quota method. Margin of error between 0.8 and 1.8 points. Harris Interactive – Toluna for Challenges survey conducted online from April 7 to 8 with a sample of 1,889 people registered on the electoral lists according to the quota method. Margin of error between 1 and 2.3 points. Elabe survey for BFMTV, L’Express and SFR carried out via internet on April 7 and 8 among 1,691 people registered on the electoral lists according to the quota method. Margin of error between 1 and 2.8 points.
Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the ballot. They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey.