After his successful immersive meeting on Sunday, the leader of La France Insoumise has established himself as the dominant candidate on the left. Before the 2022 presidential election, every day at 5 p.m., Monday to Friday, discover the results of our daily Ifop-Fiducial poll for Paris Match-LCI-Sud-Radio.
“Trust a shrewd election turtle like me. There is no point in running, you have to start on time. And I have already exhausted a few hares”, launched Jean-Luc Mélenchon to the 3,500 spectators of his meeting gathered in Nantes on Sunday evening for a “world first”, an immersive and olfactory meeting. Ten days after the launch of our #LaPrésidentielleEnTempsRéel Ifop-Fiducial survey for Paris Match, the candidate of La France Insoumise took two points, going from 8.5% to 10.5% of voting intentions (including +0.5 point between Wednesday and Thursday). The gap is widening between him and his opponents on the left: 5 points separate him from Yannick Jadot and 7 points from Christiane Taubira and Anne Hidalgo. The former socialist also benefits from a very high level of security on the left: 69% of his voters say they are certain of their choice in the first round against only 46% for the ecologist candidate (58% for Christiane Taubira and 55% for the mayor of Paris).
Jean-Luc Mélenchon bets on the working classes
Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been repeating it since the launch of his campaign: he is betting on the working classes to which he promises in particular a price freeze on basic necessities and an increase in the minimum wage to 1400 euros net. A strategy that surely pays off. In our survey, 27% of the unemployed and 25% of the poorest people (less than 970 euros monthly income per person at home) say they will vote for him on April 10. Figures are also up – respectively by 8 and 4 points – compared to Wednesday. If he distances Marine Le Pen among the unemployed (18% say they will vote for her), he is outdistanced by the boss of the National Rally on the most popular categories (32% of voting intentions).
But these categories are also those which abstain the most… Thus, only 50% of the unemployed and 51% of the most popular categories indicate that they will go to the polls (against 64% for the population as a whole). Passionate about technology and innovation, the rebellious candidate also remains the number one candidate among young people. In 2017, 28% of 18-24 year olds voted for him in the first round, against 23% for Emmanuel Macron and 21% for Marine Le Pen. According to our survey, 24% of young people of this age are preparing to vote for him (and 17% of 25-34 year olds), which places Mélenchon in second position behind Emmanuel Macron in this age group (29 %).
Emmanuel Macron is also progressing slightly in voting intentions (+0.5 points) to 25.5%. The other candidates remain stable: Marine le Pen at 18%, Valérie Pécresse at 16%. On the left, Christiane Taubira drops by 0.5 points (3%), a result identical to that of Anne Hidalgo, 2.5 points behind Yannick Jadot.
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